26 JAN, 2024
By Johanna Zidani from RankiaPro Europe
The first ECB meeting of the year has concluded just like the last one in 2023: without surprises. The institution chaired by Christine Lagarde has decided to keep interest rates at 4.5% for the third consecutive meeting. How do professionals in the sector interpret this decision? We show you below.
In our view, today’s ECB press conference is encouraging for equity markets. It seems the ECB President Mrs Lagarde left the door firmly open for an April start to the rate cut cycle as she highlighted the importance of the updated staff projections which will become available in March. The President spoke a lot about wage pressures today, but the reality is that six-month headline and core inflation in the Eurozone have fallen back into the low 2’s% annualised rate already now. Monetary lead indicators point to a further reduction which should hint at annual inflation rate returning to its 2% target during 2H24. Given the stagnant European economy close to the brink of recession over the past 18 months already – vs a seemingly perfect soft landing in the US – ECB rate cuts should stay firmly in the equity market’s sight. In our European Large Cap funds, we are positioned bullishly, and are favouring sectors that have historically outperformed in rate cut cycles, e.g. technology and in particular semiconductors, financial services and consumer discretionary.
Following an overall favorable inflation data, markets have started speculating about ECB key rate cuts beginning in the second quarter. Recent comments from Governing Council members were more heterogenous and President Lagarde again emphasized the importance of this year’s collective wage agreements. Major latest agreements in France, Spain and the Netherlands were quite high and unlikely tamed concerns about medium term inflation. Therefore, at Thursday’s policy meeting we expect the ECB to adopt a wait-and-see stance emphasizing data-dependence once more. We continue to look for a first rate cut by June only and think that the narrative of the accompanying press conference will be consistent with this view.
As expected the ECB remained on hold today, with Lagarde providing little in the way of guidance at the press conference. We expect that the ECB will become incrementally more dovish at the time of the March meeting, when the latest macroeconomic projections are released. The market is pricing roughly 180bps of cuts over the course of the next two years, with the bulk of that coming in the second half of 2024. We think, considering the progress made on inflation and weak growth outlook, this is entirely reasonable. Looking ahead, the key question now is does the cycle end with rates in neutral or stimulative territory? That will partly be informed by how long the ECB wait to begin.
By RankiaPro Europe