My New Year wish list for COP28

By Neil Goddin is co-manager of the Artemis Funds (Lux) - Positive Future

Cop28 has run its course and was supposed to be an opportunity for the world to unite around tangible climate action and deliver realistic solutions. In that spirit, I will try to be positive!

One thing that I was looking for was a commitment to supporting biodiversity, which is critical in achieving the Paris Agreement goals.

Although estimates vary, the environmental impacts of food and agriculture systems are recognised as high. They are also wide-ranging, extending far beyond a major contribution to climate change.

Biodiversity losses are vast. As the global population continues to grow and standards of living improve, the intensity of farming is having an increasingly damaging effect on our world.

We are already overusing our planet in terms of its resources by around 1.75 times each year. Earth Overshoot Day, the day we consume more than the Earth’s capacity to regenerate those resources for that year, was December 29^th in 1970. By 2000 it was September 23^rd. This year it was August 2^nd. If we all ate like Americans, we would need 5.1 Earths. But we cannot be smug in the UK – if everyone on the planet ate like we do we would still need 2.6 Earths.

These are sobering figures and should give us all pause for thought. The focus on fossil fuel usage and its impact on temperature change often takes attention away from all the other negative impacts humans are having on the planet. 

I know it sounds obvious, but ignoring the obvious is too easy – even for experts. And it is dangerous. We think of farmland as natural because it is in the countryside. Farmland is rarely natural. We are living in the shadow of both a climate crisis and a biodiversity crisis. They are not separate issues but two sides of the same coin.

Land use change is the biggest driver of biodiversity loss. The 2022 Living Planet Index shows a 69% loss in wildlife populations between 1970 and 2018. Around one million plant and animal species face extinction. We are leaving no area untouched – we have negative impacts on land, sea and air. Freshwater, marine, forestry, grassland and wetland environments are all impacted. These are all areas essential for the wellbeing of humans.

One example is coral reefs. We have lost around half already, and predictions are 70-90% will be lost as temperatures increase past 1.5ºC. We are already at warming levels of 1.2ºC since the industrial revolution began. Corals offer diverse ecosystems. They support more species than any other area of the marine environment. They help with fish levels and act as a natural defence against waves, storms and floods.

Forests are perhaps the most interesting, worrying, and depressing biodiversity subject to discuss. They are critical for stabilising our climate. They help regulate the Earth, almost like a giant heart or set of lungs. They affect rainfall patterns and the severity of heatwaves – and, of course, they store carbon. But that really does not do them justice. Forests store more carbon than all the world’s exploitable oil, gas and coal would produce. They absorb 7.6 gigatonnes per year – around 20% of global emissions – yet we cut down an area the size of Portugal each year.

The impacts are huge. They include increased carbon, less carbon absorbed, higher temperatures and less rainfall produced. Rainfall-grown agriculture accounts for around 60% of all food produced globally. So the more forest we cut down, the greater the risk to food security. This is then compounded by the effect deforestation has on the climate.

It has been estimated that the planet provides $125 trillion of value in “ecosystem services – food, fuel and fibre – to humanity each year. This is about 1.5 times global GDP. The world’s mangroves, for instance, provide over $65bn in flood protection and safeguard 15 million people from flooding.

Before COP28 started I drew up this wishlist:

1. An acknowledgement that climate and biodiversity are closely linked and appreciation of the economic consequences of loss of biodiversity.
2. A commitment to review food subsidies. I have written in the past about the cost of Big Macs – why beef is subsidised and lettuce is not is beyond me!
3. A global commitment to plant more trees than we cut down. This would be a cheap and simple game-changer.

We got the acknowledgement. Time will tell on the rest. We know that we cannot leave it just to politicians. My dream is that humans wake up to the negative impact they are having on their home. At the risk of sounding like the Grinch to those who looked forward to tucking into their Christmas turkey, the simplest thing we can all do is eat less meat. It would enable us to return more farmland to its natural state. This would mean using less fertiliser and water. It would encourage more diverse plant life and more wild animals.