Trump vs Biden: Why it’s likely to be a tight election?

By: Juhi Dhawan, Macro Strategist, Wellington Management

The six swing states that will determine the election account for 77 electoral votes, out of a total of 538. They are Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (19) and Georgia (16). As of early March, polls showed Trump leading Biden in four of the six states, with the candidates tied in Arizona and Pennsylvania. A seventh possible swing state to watch is North Carolina (16) — it tends to lean Republican but has been known to swing Democratic as it did for Barack Obama in 2008.

To put the importance of the swing states in perspective, while Biden won the 2020 election by 4.5 percentage points (nearly 7 million votes) in the national vote, the combined margin of victory in Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia was only 126,000 votes.

Looking at the remaining states, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report suggests that the Democrats can likely count on 226 electoral votes and the Republicans on 219 (or 235 if North Carolina leans Republican) on the road to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election. Given the polarizing nature of the candidates, it is also possible that neither side gets to 270 votes.

Based on polling, the issues driving voters’ decisions include the economy, immigration, abortion, climate change, democracy and its institutions, foreign policy, and equality. Trump’s focus on illegal immigration and crime are likely to keep his voter base loyal, as are promises of deregulation and lower taxes. On the other hand, the former president’s threats of higher tariffs and a more isolationist US appear to be deterrents for some. Trump’s legal battles could also influence the result, given the role of independents in determining the election (43% of US adults identified as independent in 2023, according to Gallup).

Meanwhile, Biden’s ratings have been poor thanks to high inflation and high interest rates, which have weighed on consumer confidence. But these factors are turning in his favor, which could help the Democrats retain the presidency. In addition, reproductive rights issues brought many Democratic voters to the polls during the 2022 midterm elections and may do so again this year.

Turning to the outlook for Congress, the current split in the Senate is 49 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 3 Independents (who vote with the Democrats). In this November’s elections, Republicans will be defending 11 seats, and the Democrats and Independents will be defending 23. Gaining just one or two seats (depending on who wins the White House) would give the Republicans control of the Senate, an outcome that many pundits predict — though the margin of control will determine how much they can get done.

Polls suggest that control of the House, currently held by the Republicans, will be a toss-up in the coming election. According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans appeared to have a secure grip on 210 seats and Democrats on 203 seats as of March 5. That left 22 seats that could determine the outcome, with 11 held by Republicans and 11 by Democrats.

As things stand today, there appears to be a greater likelihood of a united government under the Republicans, though the possibility of a united Democratic government cannot be completely excluded given the narrow paths to victory described above.