5 DEC, 2023
By Johanna Zidani from RankiaPro Europe
The global economic landscape is undergoing a significant shift as both the US and European economies grapple with a slowdown in activity. Key indicators suggest a nuanced picture, prompting investors to anticipate changes in central bank policies. In their latest monthly market report, Guy Wagner and his team at BLI - Banque de Luxembourg Investments shed light on the evolving economic scenario.
After an extended period of resilience, the US economy is showing signs of a slowdown. Despite a robust 5.2% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer of BLI, notes concerns. The manufacturing sector's activity index remains deeply negative, while the services sector's business trends index approaches the critical 50-mark.
"Even the labor market is showing the first signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate beginning to rise slightly."<strong>Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer </strong>
Simultaneously, Europe continues to experience an economic slowdown, with Germany and France's third-quarter GDP decline likely to persist.
Investors are closely monitoring central bank responses to the economic challenges. It emphasizes expectations for key interest rate cuts by the first half of 2024, driven by a fall in inflation and a global economic slowdown. Despite the current wait-and-see approach of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, there is growing anticipation of future policy adjustments.
November witnessed a notable shift in the bond markets, influenced by a slowdown in inflation and central banks signaling a potential end to the interest rate hike cycle. Bond yields eased on both sides of the Atlantic, with the 10-year Treasury note yield falling in the United States and benchmark rates dropping in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
In contrast to the previous month's weakness, stock markets experienced a significant rebound in November. Guy Wagner attributes this to the gradual easing of inflation and the resilience of the US economy. Investors' expectations have evolved, with the consensus view shifting towards the Federal Reserve successfully avoiding a recession. Technology, real estate, and manufacturing sectors saw substantial gains, while consumer staples and healthcare rose modestly, and energy faced a decline.
As global economic dynamics continue to evolve, investors remain vigilant, adjusting their strategies in response to changing indicators and central bank policies.
By RankiaPro Europe
By Marco Mencini