Insurers reinforce their commitment to private assets and equity despite fears of a recession in the US
26 MAR, 2026
By Joanna Piwko from RankiaPro Europe
The global insurance sector faces a more uncertain macroeconomic environment without giving up its appetite for risk or the search for profitability. This is reflected in the 15th Annual Global Insurance Survey by Goldman Sachs AM, which notes a combination of macroeconomic caution and constructive positioning in the markets.
Geopolitical tensions and the risk of slowdown or recession in the United States are established as the main threats to investment portfolios. In fact, 55% of insurers predict that the US economy will enter a recession in the next three years, compared to 46% recorded in the previous survey.
However, this scenario has not eroded confidence in financial markets. 88% of entities expect the S&P 500 to close 2026 in positive, with a majority anticipating returns of between 5% and 10%. This optimism is based on solid business growth expectations and a context of gradual monetary easing.
Rise of private credit and alternative assets
In this context, insurers continue to strengthen their exposure to private assets, which continue to gain structural weight in their portfolios. 62% plan to increase their allocation to this type of assets in 2026, consolidating a trend that has intensified in recent years.
Within this universe, asset-backed financing stands out as one of the main bets, with a net balance of 38% of insurers planning to increase their exposure. They are followed by private placements with investment grade (35%), senior direct loans (33%), as well as private equity and infrastructure (both with 25%).
According to Mike Siegel, Global Head of Insurance Asset Management at Goldman Sachs AM, private credit has evolved to become a central piece for the sector, allowing insurers to optimize profitability and adjust the duration of their portfolios in a more volatile environment. In addition, he highlights their role as providers of patient capital in credit cycles.
This positioning is also reflected in the perception of opportunities: private equity leads the 12-month return expectations, followed by US equities, commodities, and emerging equities.
Upside risks in a more complex environment
The study highlights a shift in the hierarchy of risks. The recession in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions (both pointed out by 52% of respondents) surpass inflation (42%) as the main concern. Also noteworthy are high valuations and volatility in credit and equity markets.
In parallel, the sector consensus points to a more moderate interest rate environment. 79% of insurers anticipate Federal Reserve cuts to the range of 3%-3.5%, while 81% expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to remain between 3.5% and 4.5%.
For Jared Klyman, global head of the insurance business of the manager, this context demands greater discipline in asset selection, both in public and private markets, in an increasingly complex and dynamic environment.
AI gains investor prominence
Beyond asset allocation, the survey highlights the growing role of artificial intelligence in the insurance sector. 62% of companies already use AI, while another 34% are evaluating its adoption.
Its applications range from reducing operational costs —the most widespread use— to investment evaluation, risk underwriting, and customer acquisition. In parallel, 56% of insurers identify in infrastructure and data centers the greatest investment opportunities linked to this technology.
From Goldman Sachs Asset Management they emphasize that the development of AI and associated digital infrastructure represents one of the greatest investment opportunities of the coming decades, driven by the growing demand for computational capacity and the deployment of new technological value chains.
Overall, the insurance sector faces a scenario marked by greater macroeconomic risks, but also by new structural opportunities, in which diversification, innovation, and active management will be key to sustaining profitability.
