Scope revises France’s and Greece’s ratings
21 SEPT, 2026
By Joanna Piwko from RankiaPro Europe
France's fiscal outlook has been sliding for some time, and Scope Ratings' latest move reflects that trend: rising public debt, deficits that refuse to narrow, and structural reforms that keep stalling.
Scope Ratings has lowered France's long-term issuer ratings – in both local and foreign currency – along with its senior unsecured debt rating, from AA- to A+, while shifting the outlook from negative to stable.
Behind the downgrade, Scope points to two main drivers:
- Deteriorating fiscal fundamentals, with budget deficits that remain stubbornly high, plus rising interest costs and an ever-heavier debt load. Government bond yields have climbed sharply since January 2026, pushing financing costs higher, squeezing fiscal room to manoeuvre and widening the adjustment France will eventually need to make to bring debt under control.
- A fractured political landscape marked by growing polarisation. This has stalled fiscal consolidation and slowed structural reform. Scope expects the fragmentation to persist well past the 2027 presidential election, making the needed fiscal tightening harder to deliver – and raising the odds that measures get watered down, delayed, or only partly enacted.
Despite the downgrade, the stable outlook signals Scope still sees France's A+ rating as underpinned by its central role in Europe's economic, financial and security framework, along with solid economic resilience, a favourable debt structure, strong market access and a robust banking sector.
Greece earns an upgrade to BBB+ with a stable outlook
Greece is moving in the opposite direction. A faster-than-expected reduction in debt, paired with a more resilient economy, has earned the country a ratings upgrade – even as elevated debt levels, structural growth constraints and external vulnerabilities still shape the picture.
Scope Ratings has upgraded Greece's long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to BBB+ from BBB, across both local and foreign currency, with the outlook revised to stable from positive.
The upgrade rests on two pillars:
- Improving economic resilience and stronger medium-term growth prospects, fuelled by sustained reform momentum, robust investment activity and substantial EU-funded investment programmes. Greece has consistently outpaced eurozone growth in recent years – further proof of its resilience relative to the pre-pandemic era. Real GDP expanded by an average of 2.1% between 2023 and 2025, well above the EU's roughly 1.0%, with growth expected to hold at 1.9% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, even as the external environment grows more complex.
- A rapid decline in the public debt ratio alongside stronger fiscal sustainability, driven by sizeable, sustained primary surpluses, structural gains in tax administration and compliance, and a consistent record of disciplined fiscal management. Greece posted a general government surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, with a primary surplus of 4.9%. Scope projects Greece's fiscal performance will remain among the EU's strongest, with an overall surplus near 3.0% of GDP in 2026 and a primary surplus close to 4.1%. Even so, Greece's debt burden – still one of the highest in the eurozone – continues to weigh on its credit profile relative to higher-rated peers. Under Scope's baseline scenario, debt is set to fall from 145.7% of GDP in 2025 to 110% by 2031.
