5 investment themes for the long term according to Jean-Louis Delhay, CIO of Crédit Mutuel AM
16 FEB, 2026
In a global context marked by profound changes - from the shift in monetary policies to geopolitical tensions, up to the revolution of artificial intelligence - identifying solid and lasting investment themes has become more crucial than ever for long-term investors. The decisions of the Federal Reserve, the evolution of inflation, the growing role of central banks and the new balances between the United States and Europe are redefining the prospects of financial markets.
In this interview, Jean-Louis Delhay, Chief Investment Officer of Crédit Mutuel Asset Management, analyzes the current macroeconomic scenario and identifies five major investment themes set to shape portfolios in the coming years.
Let's start with the United States: what were the latest moves of the Federal Reserve and what are the prospects for the coming months?
As widely predicted by economists, on Wednesday, December 10, the Federal Reserve reduced the range of reference rates by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.50%-3.75%. FOMC members anticipate a further cut of the same magnitude during 2026, a lower number compared to the expectations of financial markets, which instead discount two reductions. On the positive side, the central bank has returned to a position of quantitative easing, with monthly purchases of US Treasuries for 40 billion dollars, with maturities up to three years. In our opinion, this mix of policies continues to support the American economy.
The latest economic projections from the Fed also appear relatively solid, indicating more sustained growth accompanied by controlled inflation. Finally, Jerome Powell's term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve will end in May and his potential successor is considered very close to the positions of President Donald Trump.
In this context, what are the particularly interesting investment themes in the medium-long term?
Certainly gold, previously defined as "the old barbaric relic", which has very favorable prospects ahead. Its role as a safe haven is strengthened in a context of progressive decrease in the influence of the dollar, while central banks, particularly those of emerging countries, seek to reduce their dependence on the US currency.
On the banking sector, what will be the elements to monitor and, in general, is a good year expected?
The steepening of the yield curve is very good news for European and American banks, since one of their main activities is to raise short-term funds to employ them in the long term. When the differential between the rates paid on deposits, linked to short-term maturities, and those applied to loans, linked to long-term maturities, expands, the profitability of credit institutions automatically improves. This context is even more favorable considering the strengthening of bank balances, which allows interesting returns for shareholders, the advancement of deregulation processes and a solid pipeline of M&A operations, particularly benefiting investment banks.
In addition to the topics already mentioned, are there other sectors that you find particularly interesting at this time?
Since February 2022, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the defense theme has regained strong momentum and has now become indispensable. Specifically, at the end of June, NATO member countries committed to a historic increase in military spending, aiming at 3.5% of GDP, and up to 5% including a broader definition of security spending, compared to the current reference of 2%. These commitments automatically translate into a strong increase in the order portfolios of the defense industry and strengthen the prospects for sustained growth in the sector in the medium term.
Another central theme is that of artificial intelligence for which enthusiasm remains high since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022. The explanation is relatively simple: the investment phase in AI infrastructure, necessary for the development of computing power and data storage capabilities, is proving longer than expected and characterized by higher spending volumes. Both companies directly involved in AI and those active along the entire value chain, from energy production to electric networks, from gas turbines to cable suppliers, rack systems, cooling systems, advanced semiconductors and memories, benefit from this. However, at this stage it is necessary to be selective and favor solid operators.
Finally, with the acceleration of the German stimulus plan starting from 2026, the local industrial companies (in Germany, Austria and Central Europe) should benefit from it.
What is your view on the equity front between the United States and the Eurozone?
We maintain a positive view on the stock markets, particularly in the United States, supported by an accommodating monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar and the persistence of momentum in technological and infrastructural investments. We are also positive on European stocks, supported by the German stimulus plan and ECB rate cuts.
Let's conclude by talking about the bond market. What do you expect for this year? On the fixed income front, we believe that the context continues to favor a further steepening of the yield curves, especially in areas characterized by strong fiscal support. In the Eurozone, market expectations currently indicate a ECB inclined to maintain the status quo throughout 2026, an element that makes long positions on European bonds asymmetrically favorable in terms of risk. In fact, a rise in the deposit rate during the year seems unlikely, while there is a scenario in which inflation surprises on the downside, inducing an even more accommodating stance from the European institution.
