The dollar is losing strength, the “old regime” is ending, and AI risks a bubble: the 2026 outlook according to G. Lombardo (Plenisfer)
9 FEB, 2026
CIO, co-CIO and founder of Plenisfer Investment, Giordano Lombardo leads a team that has built its identity on a "non-conventional" reading of the markets: global, macro-aware and attentive to the major structural transitions that redraw risk premiums in the long term. Lombardo is also the author of the annual letter from Plenisfer, a document that over the years has become a point of reference for those following the evolution of the markets: it is a strategic analysis that combines economic cycle, geopolitics, currency dynamics and evaluations, with the aim of anticipating breaking points and the opportunities that derive from them.
In this comparison with RankiaPro, Lombardo revisits some of the central theses of the letter and translates them into operational implications for institutional investors: from the depreciation of the dollar as a key event of 2025, to the end of an economic model that has supported financial assets for over a decade. And, above all, he sends a message that the markets are only beginning to price partially: Artificial Intelligence is a real revolution, but "history teaches that even revolutions can turn into bubbles"
Activate the Italian subtitles from the bottom right corner of the video
- 00:45 - In your letter you write that “the most important development of the year was the loss of value of the United States dollar against all other currencies”. Why do you believe the dollar’s devaluation is still underappreciated or not fully priced by markets, despite its broad effects on assets, capital flows, and returns?
- 02:00 - In the chapter on the “regime shift,” you argue it is “highly unlikely” that we return to the old environment of low inflation, low rates, and US-led growth… suggesting that era is likely over. What are the biggest mistakes investors risk making if they continue to allocate capital as if that old regime still applies?
- 04:13 - You also state in the letter that “the main macroeconomic risk not priced by markets is a return of inflation to structurally higher levels,” driven by de-globalization, demographics, and expansionary fiscal policy. If this risk materializes, which assets or market segments do you see as most vulnerable?
- 06:34 - In the AI chapter, you acknowledge we may still be in the early stages of a potential bubble, while maintaining moderate skepticism and discussing leverage, capex, and returns on capital. If AI fails to deliver expected returns on invested capital, where do you think stress would appear first (equities, credit markets, or private markets) and why?
- 09:13 - In your letter you argue that “today is much more similar to 1999 than to 2008,” with high US valuations but attractive opportunities elsewhere. Looking back at the dot-com bubble, which specific warning signs from 1999 should investors watch today to avoid repeating the same mistakes, especially in a tech- and AI-driven narrative environment.
