Inflation in Poland much lower than expected: CPI hits NBP target in June
30 JUN, 2026
By Joanna Piwko from RankiaPro Europe
June brought a further, marked slowdown in consumer inflation in Poland. According to a flash estimate from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June 2026 – exactly matching the inflation target set by the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The June reading came in clearly below May's 3.1% and April's 3.2%. Crucially, the data also surprised markets – economists had expected inflation of 2.7%, meaning the actual result came in 0.2 percentage points below consensus.
This marks the second consecutive month in which GUS has recorded not only a slowdown in the annual rate of price growth, but an actual month-on-month decline in the price of the consumer basket. In June, CPI fell by 0.5% compared to May, following a 0.3% month-on-month drop recorded in May.
What got cheaper: fuel, food and utilities
The main driver behind June's price decline was fuel, which dropped 7.4% compared to May, although it remains 5.3% more expensive than a year earlier. Food prices also fell – down 0.7% month-on-month, resulting in a price level 0.3% lower than in June 2025. Energy costs eased as well: electricity, gas and other fuels were 0.4% cheaper than in May, though still 4.8% higher year-on-year.
Full data broken down by remaining consumption categories will be published by GUS on July 15, as part of the first regular CPI estimate for June.
VAT change on fuel set to reshape the inflation picture in July
Despite the encouraging June figures, experts don't expect the downward trend to continue. Starting in July, the 23% VAT rate on fuel will be reinstated, which should drive a rebound in price inflation as early as the next reading.
Inflation in historical context
Full-year inflation for 2025 came in at 3.6% – identical to the previous year, but significantly below the levels seen in 2021–2023. By comparison, average annual inflation reached 11.4% in 2023, 14.4% in 2022, and 5.1% in 2021.
Despite June's on-target result, longer-term statistics show just how rare a return to the NBP's target has been in recent years. Of the past 79 months, CPI was below 2.5% in only 7 of them. The inflation target remains persistently exceeded over both the medium and long term – the geometric average inflation over the past 5 years stood at 7.39%, over 10 years at 4.74%, and over 20 years at 3.41%.
June's reading, while symbolic, may therefore prove to be a brief reprieve before another wave of price growth – this time driven by tax policy decisions rather than purely market mechanisms.
