Poland’s Central Bank holds steady, but a rate-hike debate is taking shape
10 SEPT, 2026
By Joanna Piwko from RankiaPro Europe
Poland's Monetary Policy Council (RPP) closed its first post-summer meeting on 9 September with the outcome nearly everyone had priced in: interest rates left untouched, as Money.pl reported. The reference rate stays at 3.75%, with the lombard rate at 4.25%, the deposit rate at 3.25%, and the bill rediscount and discount rates at 3.80% and 3.85% respectively. It's the same setting that has held since the Council's last move — a 25 basis-point cut back in March.
A hold that was never really in doubt
Going into the meeting, the consensus among analysts was firm: no change. That reading held even though, just two months earlier, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński had floated the possibility of pushing for a cut himself in September. The economic backdrop shifted in the interim, as Business Insider Polska noted: Middle East tensions have driven up energy and fuel prices, headline inflation climbed to 3.4% in August, wage growth has picked up, and the domestic economy continues to run hot — all arguments for the Council to stay cautious rather than resume easing.
Why cuts are off the table for now
Adam Antoniak, economist at ING Bank Śląski, argues that the current inflation backdrop simply rules out any near-term easing. In his view, conditions for cuts won't be in place before the end of the year at the earliest, with a window opening only around the middle of 2027 — and even then, he expects the Council would have room for no more than two 25 basis-point reductions. That view lines up with the broader analyst median, which points to rates staying frozen at current levels through mid-2027.
The outlier case: a hike, not a cut
Not everyone is looking in the same direction, though. Economists at Crédit Agricole Bank Polska broke from that consensus this week, arguing that the combination of strong Polish GDP growth, an energy shock spilling into the wider economy, and higher inflation could push the RPP toward tightening rather than easing — specifically, a 25 basis-point hike following the Council's November projection round.
Markets are starting to lean the same way. Pricing in the FRA (forward rate agreement) market now implies as many as two to three rate increases over the coming year, totalling 50 to 75 basis points — a notable shift from the "lower for longer" narrative that dominated earlier in the year.
What happens next
For now, the immediate market focus shifts to two things: the tone of the Council's official post-meeting statement, due at 4pm, and Glapiński's press conference the following day. Any stronger-than-expected emphasis on inflation risks in either could accelerate the market's repricing toward hikes and push out expectations for eventual cuts even further.
For households, the practical takeaway is stasis rather than relief. Borrowers hoping for cheaper mortgages and consumer loans, as well as savers eyeing better returns on deposits, will need to keep waiting — the current rate environment offers movement for neither camp just yet.
The bottom line
The September decision itself was a non-event, exactly as expected. What's more interesting is the growing split in outlook: a majority still betting on stability into 2027, and a vocal minority — echoed increasingly by market pricing — now positioning for the Council's next move to be up, not down.
Sources: Money.pl, Business Insider Polska
