U.S. job growth slows to just 15,000 per month in 2025 despite 130,000 January gain
12 FEB, 2026
By Joanna Piwko from RankiaPro Europe
The latest U.S. employment report initially appeared reassuring: 130,000 jobs were created in January and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. However, a closer look at the data – particularly the significant downward revisions to previous months – suggests a much softer underlying trend.
Total job growth for 2025 has been revised down to just 181,000 positions for the entire year, equivalent to roughly 15,000 per month. While demographic shifts such as population aging and tighter immigration may have lowered the so-called break-even pace of job creation, that figure remains modest by historical standards.
“It is true that the so-called “break-even” level of job growth has likely declined, partly due to population aging and immigration restrictions. Nevertheless, an average increase of 15,000 jobs per month remains subdued, and further revisions could even push wage growth into negative territory”, says Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel.
January’s employment gains were also heavily concentrated in healthcare and education, underscoring the lack of widespread hiring momentum across sectors.
“This concentration suggests that a broad and sustained rebound in employment is not imminent.” says Cleveland.
The weaker employment trajectory also has implications for income growth and consumption. Downward revisions imply softer aggregate wage and salary gains than previously estimated, potentially weighing on household purchasing power in the months ahead.
“If income growth slows, spending will eventually follow,” Cleveland notes. “That’s where the real risk lies.”
Looking ahead, attention now turns to the February employment report, due in early March ahead of the next FOMC meeting. For now, the baseline expectation remains that inflation will moderate in 2026, while labor market conditions stay subdued – a combination that could pave the way for three Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in the second quarter of next year, says Cleveland.
