3 selectors, 3 investment ideas for 2026
2 FEB, 2026
After the exceptional performance of 2025, the mood heading into 2026 is still positive, though expectations are more measured. Market professionals share their views on the key trends likely to shape the year ahead, from shifting dynamics between emerging and developed markets to the renewed role of gold, active ETFs and alternative strategies. Their views highlight a common theme: the need for greater diversification, selectivity and active management in a changing macro and market environment.
Diogo Verde, Fund Selector, Millennium bcp.
Following the strong performance of 2025, expectations are positive for 2026. While I do not expect returns to match those of 2025, I believe 2026 should continue to deliver a positive tone across most asset classes. Below are three structural shifts I expect to shape markets in 2026.
When Emerging looks more and more developed
One of the most significant global shifts heading into 2026 is the restoration of policy credibility across many emerging markets, at a time when several developed economies face rising deficits, protectionism and fiscal constraints.
As we know, many EM central banks tightened policy early in the inflation cycle and have remained cautious since. In today’s environment, fiscal and monetary discipline has become a clear competitive advantage. This macro reset is reinforced by structural tailwinds. North Asia continues to benefit from the datacenter buildout and sustained semiconductor demand. Years of underinvestment in resources now benefit commodity-driven economies in Latin America, supported by a political shift. Even historically fragile markets such as Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Pakistan have undergone meaningful post-crisis repair.
Bitcoin is NOT the new Gold
Another structural shift is playing out in real time. While Bitcoin has struggled to fulfil its promise as a store of value, gold has firmly reclaimed that role.
Gold’s extraordinary bull run has accelerated, significantly outperforming crypto. The run shows no sign of slowing down. Gold has surged by 25% over the past month, 66% over the past six months, and is up 200% compared with five years ago. In the meantime, Bitcoin has lost 25% of its value over the past six months.
Both gold and Bitcoin share some key characteristics (including limited supply). The difference is trust. Gold carries thousands of years of monetary credibility, while Bitcoin remains a relatively young asset whose behaviour continues to correlate more with liquidity cycles than with systemic stress.
Active ETFs are the tool for portfolio reconstruction
Finally, I believe 2026 will mark an evolution in portfolio construction for European investors. Active ETFs are increasingly being used to recalibrate portfolios across markets, combining active management with the liquidity, transparency and cost efficiency of the ETF structure.
This movement is particularly relevant in fixed income. A market characterized by structural inefficiencies, interest-rate volatility and credit dispersion that favour dynamic allocation and bottom-up issuer selection. Active ETFs also broaden access to harder-to-reach segments, including high yield, emerging market debt and derivative-based strategies, allowing investors to manage exposures more flexibly as market regimes evolve.
Jordi Sánchez, Head of external funds, Creand Crèdit Andorrà
- Fund: Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return (IE00BLP5S684)
On the threshold of 2026, a renewed interest in liquid alternative strategies is observed. Stock valuations remain demanding, interest rates point downwards and corporate credit spreads are compressed; a cocktail that diminishes the attractiveness of traditional assets and rekindles the search for diversification. These strategies can act as a substitute for fixed income, providing decoupling and additional profitability to the portfolio. In this context, approaches capable of generating positive absolute returns, regardless of the market environment, with low or negative correlations against conventional assets, gain prominence.
Among the multitude of alternatives, market neutral strategies emerge as an ideal solution: by maintaining a net neutral exposure, they virtually eliminate all correlation with the stock market and reduce portfolio volatility. A notable example is Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return, a market neutral fund that stands out as a very interesting option.
The fund's multifactorial strategy diversifies profitability sources with the aim of achieving capital growth and controlled risk. It seeks to generate positive absolute returns in any market environment, measured over 12-month periods. The fund maintains a zero beta with respect to the stock market, achieving virtually no correlation with global stocks and bonds. Likewise, it limits its annualized volatility to around 6% and takes the Federal Reserve's base rate as a reference.
Jupiter Asset Management has been managing this strategy since 2009 and has gradually perfected it without deviating from its original philosophy. This good sustained track record is attributed to the Systematic Equities team led by Amadeo Alentorn, composed of experienced managers and researchers and supported by an internal data science team dedicated to the development of tools, data debugging and experimentation with new methodologies.
The investment process is totally quantitative and systematic, structured in multiple stages. At its core, the selection of values is based on five proprietary quantitative factors —relative valuation, sustainable growth, management quality, market sentiment, and momentum— that have proven effective over different cycles and constitute the main source of alpha. Additionally, the strategy applies a dynamic factor weighting scheme (risk management overlay) that adjusts exposures in real time according to the market regime. This system evaluates the effectiveness of each factor in regions, time horizons, and macroeconomic contexts, giving the model the agility needed to not lag behind cycle changes.
In conclusion, this fund offers a very attractive risk-return binomial along with a virtually null correlation with traditional markets, valuable qualities in the current environment. This combination of attributes makes it an attractive piece for portfolios, providing real diversification and absolute returns independent of the direction of the markets.
Federica Nicolini, Senior Manager, individual management team and quantitative analysis, Cassa Lombarda
2026 opens with a macroeconomic scenario generally favorable to risky assets. Global growth is expected to slow down moderately, but with contained recession risks and more accommodating monetary and fiscal policies than in previous years. These factors should continue to support the performance of equity markets, albeit in a context that requires attention to risk management.
Despite the positive picture, some challenges emerge. Global equity indices show a strong concentration on a few US tech companies, driven by the theme of artificial intelligence and high valuations. This increases the risk of dependence on a limited number of titles and necessitates greater diversification, both geographically and by market capitalization.
In recent years, passive investments and low tracking error systematic strategies have outperformed active management, attracting substantial flows. However, we are witnessing a return of interest towards fundamental managers capable of generating alpha, especially in the segment of European and global small and mid caps. In this context, we believe that active strategies can return to play a key role, improving the return profile of portfolios and reducing the risk of concentration on the technology theme alone.
Geographical diversification remains another pillar to reduce concentration risk: increasing exposure towards Europe and Emerging Countries is a strategic choice to balance the weight of the American market in global indices. For Europe, in addition to traditional passive instruments and smart beta ETFs, we signal interest towards quality active funds, such as the strategies of Eleva Capital.
In addition to the long only Europe equity fund, long/short equity strategies deserve attention:
- Eleva Absolute Return Europe: characterized by contained volatility and low net exposure, ideal for those seeking stability.
- Eleva Absolute Return Dynamic: with higher equity exposure and superior risk/return profile. This strategy combines bottom-up selection and top-down macro analysis, with flexibility in net exposure (historically between 30% and 75%). It stands out for its transparency and timeliness in communication, and has proven to generate consistent performance with lower volatility compared to pure equity.
In a generally positive macroeconomic context, we believe that credit can also offer interesting returns in the new year. Spreads, however, have reached historically low levels: selectivity and active management become fundamental to mitigate default risk and reduce drawdowns in potential risk-off phases. In this area we prefer the bond strategies of Man Group, in particular:
- Man High Yield Opportunities (dedicated to the high yield market)
- Man Dynamic Income (flexible among the various credit segments)
- Man Global Investment Grade Opportunities (focused on investment grade)
These are all highly active and unconstrained strategies compared to benchmarks, capable of generating alpha thanks to the selection of smaller and less followed issues. This feature offers opportunities for superior returns, but requires appropriate weighting for the higher risk of illiquidity.
In summary, 2026 is shaping up as a year of opportunities, but also challenges related to market concentration and volatility management. Diversification, active selection and integration of flexible strategies will be the keys to building resilient and growth-oriented portfolios.