2026 will be another year of important elections for emerging markets
30 DEC, 2025
By Mali Chivakul, Emerging Markets Economist at J. Safra Sarasin
2026 is shaping up to be another significant year in the emerging markets (EM) electoral cycle. In Latin America, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil will hold parliamentary and presidential elections. The trend toward more hardline governments in Latin America—illustrated by Milei’s recent victory and the likely runoff in Chile’s presidential elections in December—could pave the way for stronger political ties between the region and the United States. Outside Latin America, Hungary is expected to hold parliamentary elections in April, while Thailand is expected to call parliamentary elections in the first quarter.
Peru’s general elections are scheduled for April 12. The country has experienced a prolonged period marked by unpopular presidents, and the political landscape is highly fragmented. However, ongoing political turmoil has not undermined Peru’s macroeconomic stability. Former president Boluarte, who took office in 2022 following the impeachment and arrest of another former left-wing president, Castillo, was recently removed from office and replaced by the president of Congress. Although several months remain before the elections, the leading candidates in recent polls are Rafael López Aliaga (former mayor of Lima) and Keiko Fujimori, familiar figures on the right who also ran in the 2021 elections. Fujimori narrowly lost to Castillo by just 0.26 percentage points.
Colombia will hold parliamentary elections on March 8 and presidential elections on May 31. The current president, Gustavo Petro, is not eligible for re-election. Recent polls suggest that the presidential race will be highly competitive. Petro’s party, Pacto Histórico (PH), remains popular. Its presidential candidate, Iván Cepeda, is tied with centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo. However, the majority of voters remain undecided. Petro is currently managing the economy with an expansionary fiscal policy, which could influence voters. GDP growth in the third quarter reached 3.6% year-on-year, the highest rate since 2022.
Brazil’s general elections are scheduled for October 4. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) has announced his intention to run for re-election. Former president Jair Bolsonaro has been barred from running and is currently serving a prison sentence. It remains unclear which right-wing candidate will challenge Lula, who continues to enjoy strong popularity and leads in the latest polls. Possible challengers include members of the Bolsonaro family as well as other figures such as Tarcísio de Freitas, the current governor of São Paulo.
Hungarians will vote in April 2026, marking the first serious challenge to Viktor Orbán in many years. Recent polls indicate that Péter Magyar and his new party, Tisza, are ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz party. Orbán’s response has been to loosen fiscal deficit targets for 2025 and 2026, triggering a pre-election increase in spending. Markets reacted negatively, with bond yields rising by 30 basis points. The Hungarian National Bank has adopted a hawkish stance in response to fiscal loosening and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged throughout the pre-election period. A Tisza victory could improve Hungary’s access to EU funds, potentially revitalizing an economy that is currently the weakest in Central and Eastern Europe.
In Thailand, a new government was formed in early September after the Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office as prime minister. The current prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has formed a minority government and reached an agreement with the main opposition party, the People’s Party (PP), which holds one-third of parliamentary seats. Under the agreement, Anutin committed to supporting a clear timetable for constitutional reform and promised to dissolve parliament within four months. Parliamentary elections in Q1 2026 remain wide open. While the PP continues to enjoy popularity among young and urban voters, its ability to broaden its electoral base remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Anutin’s party has gained support through the appointment of trusted professionals to key economic posts, but it has also been criticized for its handling of recent floods. Whoever wins, a new mandate could offer an opportunity to launch much-needed structural reforms to boost growth.
