Black swans that could challenge the economic environment in 2026
13 JAN, 2026
By François Rimeu from La Française
By François Rimeu, Senior Strategist at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management
For several months now, we have been emphasizing that the environment has been favorable for risk assets and conducive to a continued steepening of yield curves. Our assessment will not be radically different at the start of this year.
Growth momentum remains positive. In recent months, growth forecasts for the major economies have been revised upward in almost all cases, particularly in the United States (1.95% expected in 2025 versus 1.5% in August), but also in the euro area (1.4% versus 1.1% in August). Several leading indicators point to dynamics that remain strong in the services sector, while manufacturing appears to have finally emerged from recession following the rise in energy prices.
Fiscal policies remain highly expansionary. The One Big Beautiful Bill, passed in 2025 by the Trump Administration, will continue to have positive effects in 2026 (tax cuts of around $100 billion). In addition, we believe it is feasible that new fiscal stimulus measures will be approved ahead of the midterm elections—the well-known tariff-related dividends already mentioned by Trump and Bessent. According to their statements, this could amount to more than $300 billion. In Europe, fiscal support should also remain in place, mainly through the German recovery plan (€500 billion).
On the monetary policy front, once again the trend points toward policies that will support growth. U.S. unemployment is rising, inflation appears to be under control, and pressure from the Executive Branch remains strong. The ECB remains on hold and is expected to stay that way until the end of the first half of the year. In the euro area, the outlook depends on inflation developments, where downside risks appear greater than upside risks.
Corporate fundamentals are also positive. Valuations are high in some markets, but earnings are ultimately tied to nominal growth and should remain solid in 2026. Recent revisions have been positive, particularly in the United States.
All signals appear positive at the end of this year, but it is always worth considering what could alter this dynamic. Below, we discuss some potential surprises that could challenge the scenario described above:
- A rise in energy commodity prices. The current consensus expects prices to remain very low in the near term. However, AI-driven demand is strong, the economic backdrop supports sustained prices, and positioning is currently very weak. This could call the disinflationary scenario into question.
- A resurgence of inflation risk, as recently seen in Australia, which could destabilize bond markets and put pressure on risk premia.
- Lower earnings expectations for U.S. technology companies, amid increasingly intense competition in both software and hardware.
