Colombian elections: results and market moves
22 JUN, 2026
By Thierry Larose from Vontobel
Following the second round of the presidential elections held yesterday, it appears that the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella has won the presidency of Colombia with 49.7% of the vote. Despite the narrow margin of 0.95% and pending legal challenges filed by the left, international markets are anticipating a significant regime shift in favor of reforms.
Main financial and market implications:
Currency: The Colombian peso is expected to outperform, supported by tactical inflows into local bonds and an expanding carry advantage, as the central bank is likely to implement further tightening of 75 to 100 basis points relative to the current policy rate of 11.25%. However, upside potential may be limited to around 3–4%, given that the outcome was largely expected and the currency already appears relatively expensive on a trade-weighted basis.
Interest rate strategy: A flattening of the yield curve is likely. Expectations of fiscal austerity and the appointment of a more orthodox cabinet should compress yields in the medium and long end, while moderating the current restrictive tone at the short end.
Energy sector shift: The new government is expected to implement aggressive, Milei-style deregulation to reverse the projected 20% decline in production. Planned measures include the renewal of exploration licenses, tax incentives, and governance reform at Ecopetrol, all of which should help catalyze long-term foreign direct investment.
