Markets are paying more attention to earnings than to macro; opportunities in short- and medium-term fixed income
23 APR, 2026
By Mutualidad
Pedro del Pozo, Chief Investment Officer at Mutualidad
Markets, and equities in particular, are showing clearly positive performance, with index gains pushing toward recent highs. However, this movement coexists with a noticeable divergence between corporate earnings forecasts and macroeconomic data, which keeps a significant portion of investors in a cautious stance.
On one hand, earnings-per-share estimates in the United States point to growth of around 17% this year. On the other, macro data reflects a slowdown: the U.S. economy closed the previous year with an annualized growth rate of 0.5%, and the latest estimates from the Atlanta Fed place first-quarter growth at around 1.2%. This divergence largely explains the current balance between market optimism and cautious positioning.
Even so, equity market performance remains solid. Episodes of volatility and uncertainty in recent weeks have been more linked to geopolitical developments—particularly in the Middle East—than to any further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions.
Even before the conflict, the environment already pointed to some easing in growth, especially in the United States. The war introduces an additional layer of uncertainty that could intensify this process. Its impact is expected to be negative for growth and, more clearly, for inflation. In any case, the key factor remains the duration of the conflict.
In this context, equity markets are paying more attention to corporate earnings than to macroeconomic data. And despite the economic slowdown, earnings have been positively surprising. Companies are showing notable resilience in a less favorable environment.
This does not eliminate caution. Macroeconomic indicators remain leading signals and therefore keep the possibility of market adjustments alive. However, there is another factor explaining current market behavior: high liquidity. This liquidity means that during short-term declines, investors who had been on the sidelines step in, limiting the depth of corrections.
In this sense, more pronounced volatility episodes cannot be ruled out in the future. Nevertheless, in a scenario where the geopolitical situation stabilizes and macroeconomic deterioration is not severe, such episodes could be seen as buying opportunities.
At the same time, analyzing economic growth remains essential. GDP, along with inflation, continues to be a key variable, as both largely determine the path of interest rates—an essential factor in asset valuation, especially in fixed income.
It is true that new elements are emerging that could alter how growth is interpreted. One of them is artificial intelligence. It has even been estimated that a significant portion of U.S. growth could be linked to this technology. However, there is currently no real ability to accurately estimate its future impact, let alone predict it.
What can be measured is investment spending, particularly CAPEX, which provides a clear signal of where potential growth is concentrated. In this sense, and despite the current environment, everything suggests that major blocs such as the United States—and to a lesser extent China—will continue to lead the global economy.
Fixed income aligned with current conditions
In fixed income, analysis more explicitly incorporates different geopolitical scenarios. Equity markets seem to be pricing in a short-lived conflict, in its final military phase, awaiting a diplomatic resolution. However, there is an alternative scenario of escalation—less likely, but with significant implications.
This escalation scenario is not currently reflected in equity valuations. If it materializes, it could lead to notable declines in stock markets.
Meanwhile, fixed income is showing behavior more aligned with the current situation. Yields had already been rising due to structural factors such as increased public spending and, in Europe, higher defense spending linked to the war in Ukraine. The conflict with Iran has intensified this trend, particularly in the short and medium maturities, where yields have risen as additional pressure is incorporated into interest rate expectations.
It is not particularly likely that interest rates will rise if the conflict remains limited. However, central bank messaging is evolving. In Europe, where rates were considered to have reached their target level, the possibility of further hikes is beginning to be discussed. In the United States, where one or two rate cuts were expected this year, those expectations are being scaled back.
In this environment, fixed income offers opportunities, especially if the conflict is resolved in the short term. These opportunities are mainly concentrated in high-quality assets, and although long-term yields are attractive, the greatest potential lies in short- and medium-term maturities.
Commodities and impact on the tourism sector
The analysis of commodities, particularly oil, adds another layer of complexity. This is a market that does not respond solely to supply and demand dynamics, but is also shaped by structural factors such as cartels and, very significantly, by geopolitics.
Oil prices are heavily influenced by various points of tension, from the Middle East to Ukraine. In fact, without this geopolitical component, global supply conditions would point to significantly lower prices, even below $40 per barrel.
Therefore, oil’s evolution is directly tied to the outcome of the conflict. A quick resolution would likely lead to a return to pre-war price levels.
As for sectoral impact, tourism presents a mixed picture. Some regions, such as Spain, could benefit, especially if tourist flows are redirected from areas affected by instability. By contrast, areas more dependent on transport hubs in the Middle East could experience deterioration.
Within the sector, airlines are particularly sensitive, due to their direct exposure to fuel prices. In other segments, however, the environment may create opportunities.
Ultimately, the evolution of the conflict remains the determining factor. Its duration and resolution will shape not only financial markets, but also the performance of key sectors and, more broadly, the global economy.
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