Outlook for silver 2026: price predictions according to experts
26 JAN, 2026
The year 2025 marked a turning point for the silver market, transforming it from often marginal metal to the absolute protagonist of commodities. Unprecedented performance, a renewed role as a safe haven, structural imbalances in supply and a growing weight of financial flows have brought the gray metal to the attention of investors for 2026.
The prospects for silver for 2026 by Ofi Invest AM, Robeco, Julius Baer and J. Safra Sarasin outline a scenario full of opportunities but also risks, where fundamentals coexist with high instability.
Exceptional silver rally and outperformance compared to gold
The starting point of the 2026 outlook is the extraordinary rally of 2025. Benjamin Louvet, Head of Commodities at Ofi Invest AM, highlights how silver has recorded a historic performance, since "in 2025, silver overshadowed all other commodities, closing with a performance of +140%, the highest since 1979, reaching a historic peak". A movement that, according to Louvet, reflects the combination of financial demand, industrial use and structural supply deficit.
Along the same lines Claudio Wewel, FX Strategist at J. Safra Sarasin, who describes 2025 as an exceptional year, noting that "in 2025, the metal gained almost 150%, outperforming gold". Wewel also highlights how the final acceleration of the rally exceeded, in terms of absolute price increase, those that preceded the peaks of 1980 and 2011.
A more cautious approach emerges from the words of Colin Graham, Head of Multi Asset & Equity Solutions at Robeco, who while recognizing the strength of the movement notes that “the recent increase in silver prices, which rose by 30% in 2025, embodies the current market instability”, signaling a possible disconnection between prices and fundamentals.
Even more pronounced is the analysis of Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, who defines the rally as one of the most extreme ever, emphasizing that “one of the most notable increases in the history of precious metals markets [...] has brought prices from 30 dollars an ounce at the beginning of the year to over 90 dollars an ounce today”.
Role of silver as a safe haven and monetary metal
Alongside the cyclical dimension, silver is strengthening its role as a store of value.
According to Benjamin Louvet (Ofi Invest AM), silver is “a store of value that could be defined as 'the poor man's gold', which acts as a 'safe haven' asset during periods of high economic and political uncertainty”. In support of this thesis, Louvet cites the case of India, where “strong demand during festival seasons has driven local prices to premiums of up to 8 dollars an ounce compared to international levels”.
Also, Claudio Wewel (J. Safra Sarasin) observes a growing monetary function of silver, emphasizing that, in emerging markets, “silver is emerging as a 'cheaper' alternative to gold”, with premiums in Shanghai “of about 10 US dollars compared to the London ounce price”.
For his part, Carsten Menke (Julius Baer) links the demand for safe haven assets to the macroeconomic context, stating that “this should translate into stronger demand for silver from those seeking safe haven assets”, especially in a scenario of slowing US growth, falling rates and a weaker dollar.
Dominant influence of financial and speculative flows
One of the most recurring themes in the four analyses is the growing weight of financial flows. For Colin Graham (Robeco), the market is increasingly driven by finance, so much so that “the performance of these metals will be mainly dictated by financial interests, and we can therefore expect volatility and trading based on technical factors”.
Even more explicit Carsten Menke (Julius Baer), according to whom “the growing interest from investors and speculators is the main reason why silver outperformed gold so sharply last year”. Menke also highlights the excess of speculative activity, noting that “in the market there are strong signs of exuberance, there is too much ‘Sympathy for the Devil’”, particularly in the Chinese futures market.
Also Benjamin Louvet (Ofi Invest AM) acknowledges the role of flows, emphasizing that silver's volatility is “amplified by speculative flows and margin requirements”
Finally, Claudio Wewel (J. Safra Sarasin) observes that, although not appearing excessive, speculative positions contribute to making the market more unstable.
Structural deficit of silver supply
On the supply front, the consensus is broad, albeit with different nuances. According to Benjamin Louvet (Ofi Invest AM), “the rally was further fueled by the structural deficit that has characterized the silver market for years now”. Production, he adds, has remained stagnant and “even recycling has reached a plateau and, after five consecutive years of deficit, stocks are reducing”.
Also Claudio Wewel (J. Safra Sarasin) confirms that “in the last five years the silver market has recorded a structural supply deficit”, emphasizing that only in 2025 this imbalance began to reflect significantly on prices.
More critical Carsten Menke (Julius Baer), who states that the deficit largely depends on investments, explaining that “including investment demand, the silver market has actually been undersupplied for four consecutive years”, while “excluding investment demand, it would have been oversupplied in 8 of the last 10 years”.
Industrial demand linked to energy transition
Industrial demand is another pillar of the debate. Benjamin Louvet (Ofi Invest AM) highlights that silver is essential for the energy transition, emphasizing that photovoltaics and electric mobility "currently absorb 30% of the demand for silver and could reach 40% in the coming years".
Colin Graham (Robeco) acknowledges the importance of these sectors, noting that "industrial demand from the solar and 5G sectors is high", but warns that quotations have pushed beyond the fundamentals.
More skeptical Carsten Menke (Julius Baer), according to whom this source of growth could diminish, since "the world already produces enough solar panels to allow the energy transition" and that "some Chinese solar panel manufacturers have already announced they want to abandon silver for cost reasons".
Geopolitical and political risks (USA and China)
Geopolitical tensions represent a key factor for 2026. Benjamin Louvet (Ofi Invest AM) points out that "trade tensions triggered by the imposition of tariffs by the United States" and the addition of silver to the list of US critical minerals have "heightened fears of export restrictions".
Claudio Wewel (J. Safra Sarasin) delves into the topic, recalling that "since the beginning of the year, China applies stricter controls to silver exports", a measure aimed at ensuring domestic supply in the period 2026-2027.
Finally, Carsten Menke (Julius Baer) warns about political risks in the United States, observing that "the persistent pressure of President Trump on the US Federal Reserve represents an upside risk for silver".
High volatility and more uncertain outlook for 2026
Despite overall favorable fundamentals, consensus remains cautious. Colin Graham (Robeco) expects markets dominated by volatility, while Carsten Menke (Julius Baer) warns that “depending on how these flows evolve over the course of the year, the silver market could experience strong price swings, both upwards and downwards”.
Also Claudio Wewel (J. Safra Sarasin) calls for caution, emphasizing that “silver, due to its higher volatility, usually suffers much more substantial drops compared to gold after a prolonged rally” and that, therefore, “the risk/reward ratio has become less favorable for silver”.
Conclusion
Silver enters 2026 supported by structural deficits, demand as a safe haven and geopolitical tensions, but also exposed to high volatility and a market increasingly dominated by financial flows. As emerges from the analyses of Ofi Invest AM, Robeco, Julius Baer and J. Safra Sarasin, the grey metal remains full of potential, but requires a selective approach and careful risk management in a context where narratives matter as much as fundamentals.
