The race to competitiveness accelerates in the European financial sector
19 DEC, 2024
Authors: Paul Gurzal, Co-Head of Fixed Income & Jérémie Boudinet, head of financial and subordinated debt, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management
Mergers and acquisitions are once again dominating the European financial sector. Let's take a segment-by-segment look at the movements of the last few weeks:
Banks
Delicate balance in Italy, where UniCredit is changing its strategy, as the takeover bid for Commerzbank is stalled (and should take even longer at best, given the upcoming German elections). UniCredit intends to acquire Italy's third largest bank, Banco BPM, but has offered a price with little premium to the bank's share price, probably with the aim of gaining an advantage. The reaction of Crédit Agricole, which owns about 9% of Banco BPM, will also have to be watched, especially to protect its distribution partnerships in asset management and insurance. Meanwhile, Banco BPM also made a bid to acquire Italian asset manager Anima (around 200 billion euros AUM), and Banco BPM took an approximate 4.5% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, together with Anima. The Italian government does not seem to favour a merger between BPM Bank and UniCredit at this stage, and may want to favour a merger with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena instead. What seems certain is that there will be mergers. The question remains: which banks will merge?
Asset Management
Following the agreement between BNP Paribas Cardif and AXA IM, it would be the turn of Natixis IM and Generali IM to discuss a merger. Allianz would be willing to sell a majority stake in Allianz GI, and several names have been mentioned in the press as candidates for this stake, including… Amundi, majority owned by Crédit Agricole.
Insurance Sector
The British insurer Aviva has submitted an offer to acquire Direct Line at a premium of 58% on the closing price of the small insurer. The management of Direct Line considers that this offer does not value the company at its fair value. In March, the Belgian insurer Ageas had already rejected a takeover offer.
The race to scale is therefore accelerating in all segments of the European financial market, whether through pure players or large 'bancassurance' companies.
