The CM-AM Convictions USA fund has an opportunity in the exceptionally favorable US macroeconomic environment of 2026
11 MAR, 2026
In 2026, US equities are supported by a set of particularly favourable fundamentals. The consensus now anticipates S&P 500 earnings growth of around +13% for the year, supported by positive revision momentum. This is fuelled by robust underlying demand, significant operational leverage and the accelerated integration of AI into business models.
The framework remains firmly pro-growth, both politically and fiscally. Recent government reforms were implemented before the adjustment of withholding taxes, causing many households to overpay taxes last year. These surpluses will result in exceptional tax refunds beginning in the first quarter of 2026. This will automatically increase disposable income and stimulate consumption, which is already particularly resilient. Historically, surplus liquidity has been a major driver of household spending and investment in equities.
Meanwhile, the fiscal stimulus program continues to support the economy with targeted tax cuts, investment incentives, and substantial public spending on infrastructure and defense. This pro-cyclical stance improves visibility for businesses and helps maintain sustained growth.
Finally, massive investment in artificial intelligence remains one of the major pillars of US momentum. Hyperscalers are expected to invest between $600 billion and $675 billion in capital expenditures (capex) in 2026, accounting for nearly 2% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This investment is fueling a sustainable AI cycle that is generating cross-cutting productivity gains.
In this context, US GDP growth is expected to reach around 2.5% in 2026, driven by three factors: favorable tax policies, record investment, and increased productivity.
In summary, 2026 will see a projected 13% increase in profits, supportive fiscal measures, robust consumption, and a surge in historic investment—an environment rarely so favorable for US equities.
CM-AM Convictions USA is a stock-picking strategy that capitalizes on the US cycle.
While the U.S. market offers fertile ground for active management, the CM-AM Convictions USA fund stands out in three key areas: consistent outperformance, a proven selection process, and sector agility.
Solid and Consistent Outperformance
From 2022 to 2025, the strategy demonstrates three consecutive years of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 TRNE.
• 2023: +22.7% for the fund vs. +21.4% for the index
• 2024: +40.9% vs. +32.8%
• 2025: +3.70% vs. +3.54%
Since its inception, the fund's cumulative performance has reached 58.59%, compared with 49.65% for the benchmark index. All of this has been achieved with lower volatility: 17.2% for the fund versus 18.0% for the S&P 500 TRNE. This risk control is consistent with the portfolio's DNA of quality.
A selection process focused on quality and valuation
The fund is based on a process that has been proven over 20 years, driven by two analytical tools:
1) Radar tool, which identifies investment opportunities;
2) Valuation tool, which estimates appreciation potential, supplemented by in-depth fundamental analysis.
The ultimate goal is to confirm or reject the investment decision.
This robust framework targets companies that create long-term value with a controlled risk profile.
Active and agile management is adapted to the depth of the US market
The fund manager promotes the fund's sector flexibility, which is made possible by the freedom to invest across sectors. This agility enables the fund to seize opportunities and adapt to different phases of the cycle.
Historically, three sectors have dominated active contributions to performance:
- Industrial: +6.3%
- Technology: +3.9%;
- Healthcare: +3.5%
A strategy aligned with the structural drivers of growth in the US economy in 2026
The US environment is characterized by:
- Dynamic profit growth,
- Massive fiscal support,
- Robust consumption,
- an unprecedented technology investment cycle.
The CM-AM Convictions USA fund is a high-quality stock-picking solution that can capture the depth of the U.S. market while controlling risk. The fund's relevant tool for professional investors seeking active exposure to tomorrow's US leaders is backed by its track record of outperformance, rigorous and agile approach, and sector positioning in line with structural trends.
Key Fund Characteristics:
- Benchmark: S&P 500 TRNE
- Recommended investment period: >5 years
- Institutional share (IC): ISIN: FR00140077F8
- Objective: To outperform the S&P 500 net of fees over the recommended investment period.
- Net assets: €972 million
- Shares are available in EUR, USD, and hedged currencies (EUR H, CHF H, etc.).
The fund has an SRI risk profile of 5/7 and is suitable for long-term exposure to US equities.
For more information about CM-AM Convictions please consult the dedicated page
