The private space race takes off as a new Investment megatrend, according to DNB AM
15 SEPT, 2025
A new space race is underway—this time not between states, but between companies. So says Audun Wickstrand Iversen, manager of the DNB Disruptive Opportunities fund at DNB Asset Management, who identifies the commercial space industry as an expanding market with recurring revenues, civil applications, and growing technological prominence. According to DNB AM, more than 75% of the sector is already private—a proportion unthinkable just a decade ago.
The industry, once cyclical and dependent on public budgets, now shows signs of structural growth, with scalable business models, high margins, and stable cash flows. This transition opens up new investment opportunities, from connectivity and Earth observation to launch systems.
For investors, the commercial space industry is becoming a serious theme in infrastructure and technology, with disruptive potential and long-term profitability opportunities, says Iversen.
Starlink: $3.8 Billion in Revenue and Five Million Customers
The most emblematic example is SpaceX through its Starlink satellite network. The company already operates more than 7,000 low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and has surpassed 5 million users, with monthly fees ranging from €70 to €110. In just two years, revenues have grown from €1.19 billion to a projected €3.82 billion in 2024.
The medium-term goal is to reach 50 million customers, which would generate between €45.5 billion and €63.6 billion annually. By the end of 2024, the company was valued at around €318 billion—three times the market capitalization of Equinor, Norway’s largest energy group.
AST SpaceMobile: 5G by Satellite Without Towers or Fiber Optics
An even greater disruption could come from AST SpaceMobile, which is developing a network of 40–50 satellites expected by the end of 2026. These would provide mobile coverage directly to smartphones, without the need for terrestrial infrastructure.
The model could enable global 5G internet, offering clear advantages for operators and consumers: lower costs, wider coverage, and faster deployment. The ecosystem already includes top-tier strategic partners: Apple (with Globalstar), T-Mobile (with Starlink), Qualcomm, Iridium, Samsung, Nokia, Ericsson, and Vodafone. The rollout of this technology could profoundly reshape the traditional telecom sector.
More Than 100 Satellites to Observe, Measure, and Anticipate
Another expanding business line is Earth observation. Companies such as Spire Global already operate over 100 satellites that monitor weather variables, atmospheric patterns, and maritime routes with precision. These data are increasingly relevant for sectors such as energy, agriculture, logistics, insurance, and defense.
Falling manufacturing costs, along with improved image resolution, have transformed the production model: while satellites were once unique engineering marvels, today they are produced in series. LEO satellites have a lifespan of 6–9 years, ensuring constant demand for replacement, maintenance, and technological upgrades.
The Launch Market Will Grow 20-Fold in 15 Years
The space launch segment is also experiencing a boom. In 2014, the global market volume barely reached €1.82 billion. By 2030, it is projected to hit around €39.1 billion, according to FAA and Research & Markets data.
This growth is driven by reusable rockets, new materials, automation, and technologies such as 3D printing. Rocket Lab, founded in 2006 by Peter Beck, has developed an industrial model of small, low-cost rockets using modular technologies. In 2024, it carried out its first flight with a reusable satellite, and the launch of its new Neutron rocket is planned very soon.
Starship and Musk’s Interplanetary Vision
SpaceX, meanwhile, continues advancing its Starship project, a fully reusable launch system made up of the Super Heavy booster and the Starship spacecraft. It is the largest flying object ever built, capable of carrying 100 tons of cargo into space.
Both parts of the system are designed to be recovered and reused using mechanical arms (“Mechazilla”). New test flights were scheduled for June 2025. Elon Musk himself has announced plans to carry out up to 10 missions to Mars before 2026—and even send the humanoid robot Optimus aboard.
A Megatrend With Strategic Dimension
For investors, the conclusion is clear: space is no longer just science fiction or the exclusive domain of public agencies. It is a critical infrastructure under construction, with disruptive potential, rising margins, real-world applications, and companies generating billions in revenue.
The commercial space industry represents a long-term investment opportunity with an increasingly evident strategic component, concludes Iversen at DNB AM. The keys: scalability, diversification, technological innovation, and risk-adjusted returns.
The next five years will be decisive for the companies leading this new industry—and for the investors who can anticipate it.
