| Manager | Investment Perspectives for 2025 |
| abrdn | Government Bonds: Neutral. Fed rate cuts will slow down and the ECB is likely to continue reducing them, which would mean a divergence of global rates.
Emerging government debt in local currency: Neutral (low). Headwinds due to changes in US policy. But selective opportunities among high real yield values, especially in Latin America.
Global IG Credit: Positive. Total returns are attractive, and credit could also perform well in both the bullish and bearish phases of the economy.
Global HY Credit: Neutral. Higher nominal growth should support higher risk credit, but refinancing concerns and spreads are very tight.
Developed market equity: Positive (up). Strong profits, regulatory and fiscal tailwinds, and technological underpinning. But there are risks due to valuations and concentration.
Emerging equity: Positive. Budding Chinese growth and possibility of more stimuli. Many emerging market valuations are attractive. But there are tariff risks.
Global Real Estate: Positive (rising). Occupancy levels and loans are improving and supply is limited. Attractive yield premium compared to bonds.
USD: Positive. The interest rate differentials between the US and the EU and tariffs are favorable.
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| BBVA AM | The main economies will deliver another year of growth but will be conditioned by Trump's policies. The scenario for the markets in 2025 is positive, but not without uncertainty.
The appeal of fixed income from developed and emerging countries will continue. The latter offer high returns and most emerging central banks will continue to lower interest rates.
Credit remains attractive, and in terms of return/risk we still prefer high quality or investment grade over high yield.
Equity: 9% profit growth for the US stock market, while the European stock market may see its profits rise by 5%.
The Spanish equity stands out: in addition to its attractive valuation, it may have a profit growth of 8%, higher than the market forecast.
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| Beka Finance | The start of 2025 looks optimistic, but the market could be underestimating economic and structural risks.
The slowdown in consumption, fiscal uncertainty and trade tensions will generate a global recession environment, especially in the US and Europe, while China will face structural difficulties to reactivate its economy.
Equity: prudent approach, recommending defensive sectors such as consumer, utilities, and defense. These areas offer greater stability and resilience in a context of uncertainty.
By geographies: overweight USA, focusing on large companies with solid fundamentals and the ability to weather the volatility derived from the macroeconomic scenario.
Fixed income: favorable context for high-quality debt. Beka estimates that the 10-year bond in the U.S. could be between 3% and 3.5% throughout the year.
Alternatives: increase positions in hedge funds, private debt, and gold, which will act as a refuge and offer stability in well-diversified portfolios.
Currencies: a gradual appreciation of the euro against the dollar is expected, with a target of 1.09 USD.
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| Capital Group | The world's major economies will follow divergent paths in 2025, and the role of the USA as the main engine of global growth could expand even further.
Equity: AI may be more spectacular and larger than thought. Opportunities to invest in dividend-paying stocks that have been overlooked by the market (pharmaceutical or drug manufacturers, utility companies, and selected banks).
Small caps: there are many innovative companies at reasonable prices in relation to large companies associated with well-known market themes.
Investors will have to dig deeper to discover opportunities in emerging markets. India and China present distinct investment opportunities and risks, with the Indian tech boom and the Chinese consumer market as growth drivers.
Fixed income: investors can achieve a good level of income in high-quality bonds. Stock selection can be a driver of profitability, with attractive opportunities in agency mortgage bonds and securitized credit.
The positive factors driving the economy will support corporate and high-yield bonds
The emerging market debt shows resilience.
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| Columbia Threadneedle Investments | The "divergent approaches" that central banks adopt for recovery and economic growth may cause uneven economic growth during the year 2025 that could also lead to uneven market developments.
The budget deficits of the world's major economies, situated between 5%- 6%, may be difficult to finance if they continue to increase and interest rates do not drop as expected.
Fixed income, from a good starting point: the yields are attractive and central banks are immersed in rate cut cycles that are favorable, although disparities exist.
Equity: does not foresee a continuation of the growth of the US stock market like this year.
The securities and credit section will become crucially important in 2025.
Relevance of the energy transition, which will continue to promote investment in alternative energies as we approach 2030.
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| Creand WM | The corporate profits will be the main protagonists of the markets in 2025. The global macro environment is reasonably positive in 2025.
Fixed income: interesting returns are expected. Do not increase durations to levels above 4.5% for the 10-year Treasury and 2.05% in Europe.
Macroeconomic stability and the scenario of falling rates are usually good indicators for equities. In this scenario, the coming months look bullish for the stock markets.
By geographies, bet on Spanish equities, due to the comfortable financial situation of the private sector (families and companies), the good moment of the real estate sector and the improvement of the external sector.
By sectors, exporting companies, utilities, oil companies and those listed in countries threatened by the American policy of "re-shoring", could suffer in the coming months. On the other hand, sectors that benefit from less regulation, or those that are less affected by tariffs, should do better.
They are not so optimistic for emerging markets due to the strength of the dollar, the Chinese crisis and the imposition of tariffs by the US.
China: the situation of the real estate market, the excess of debt and its deflationary environment require a much larger stimulus to turn around its delicate situation.
Currencies: Trump's victory reaffirms a better performance of the dollar against the rest.
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| DWS | US stocks present better prospects than those in the eurozone. In the US, technology stocks will be the price drivers, but financial stocks, high energy consumption companies and public service companies also have good prospects.
European equities could benefit from a cyclical recovery, in particular small & mid caps present good prospects.
Positive outlook for interest-earning investments: euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds are preferred (a total return of 4.7% is possible).
Promising Asian bonds: specific opportunities in broader diversification, reducing the weight of Chinese bonds and taking into account growth drivers such as Japan, India, and Indonesia.
Real estate market recovery and investments in infrastructure promise good returns (we are witnessing a trend change).
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| Fidelity | The soft landing scenario in USA should give way to reflation as we move into 2025. Other major economies, particularly Europe and China, will have to deal with the change in US trade and industrial policy.
These divergences will support US growth in 2025, but the underlying longer-term trend is the increase in public debt burden.
US equities will outperform the rest of the world in profits.
The Japanese stock market remains a clear bet at a time when reforms are improving returns.
Defensive investment grade bonds in dollars: to protect against recession risks.
Income through short-duration bonds from around the world: to ensure acceptable total returns.
Asian high yield bonds: to take advantage of the attractive carry and spread compression
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| Goldman Sachs AM | Soft landing in the US in sight: the labor market, consumer health, and the orientation and sequence of the incoming administration's policies will be decisive economic factors.
Fixed income: moving away from cash to invest in fixed income should be rewarding. Investment grade credit can remain resilient and the solid performance of securitized credit should continue into 2025. Opportunities can also be found in green bonds.
US equities remain the most attractive. Outside of the US, healthcare, clean energy, and luxury goods companies that do not have a US equivalent have attractive prices.
Possible turning point for small caps, driven by rate cuts and a more domestic trade policy.
Emerging market equities offer significant opportunities: India continues to present solid fundamentals.
Real estate activity will accelerate: the dynamics currently observed in the real estate sector are driven by the secular trends of demographics, technology, and the push towards sustainability, which should continue to shape global real estate demand.
ESG: greater attention to financial profitability. The decarbonization of the global economy will require channeling capital towards sectors with higher emissions (such as cement, chemical, and steel producers) to achieve real advances.
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| Indosuez WM | Rate cuts could be delayed, but are unlikely to stop. The outlook for equity markets remains positive.
American exceptionalism prevails: the weight of US equities in global portfolios continues to increase.
AI and electrification: two enduring themes. Both will likely continue to attract massive investments.
As China reforms, ASEAN emerges: we remain positive about a selection of emerging market stocks, especially in Asia.
Multi-asset portfolios, the best of both worlds: they are balanced, diversified and managed with conviction.
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| Janus Henderson | A changing macroeconomic context could create new leadership hotspots in the global equity markets, where the dominance of the Magnificent 7 could give way to a new market dynamic as valuations diverge, geopolitical uncertainty increases and policymakers focus on balancing inflation and growth.
Fixed income: may be affected by political changes that clash with the current economic reality.
The yields of high-quality bonds seem attractive. Relative valuations in credit sectors are full. Despite the low risk of default, selectivity is required.
Multi-assets: although the global economy continues to be poised to benefit from a less restrictive monetary policy and greater stimulus from China, risk can be added by expanding equity exposure to include more economy-sensitive names and selecting high-yield bonds with attractive income flows and less exposure to interest rate volatility.
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| J.P. Morgan Private Bank | Focus on political impact over electoral results: beyond right and left, the rise of anti-system parties could increase political and economic volatility, which reinforces the need for resilient investment portfolios.
The relaxation of monetary policy worldwide should boost economic growth: this provides a favorable environment for risk assets, benefiting sectors such as housing, commercial real estate, and productivity.
Capital investment will be a major driver for three global trends: artificial intelligence, energy infrastructures, and security.
European global giants offer resistance and profitability opportunities: despite the productivity challenges Europe faces, investors should not overlook the large European companies in 2025.
Take advantage of the frontiers of innovative investment in alternatives: we trust that in 2025 there will be a boom in innovation as the sector explores new areas, such as evergreen alternative funds, sports, space, and urban development.
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| Schroders | Look beyond the recent winners of the equity market, there is potential for markets to broaden even further. Different sectors and regions may start to look more attractive.
Equity market valuations do not seem expensive outside of the United States. And a positive growth environment and lower interest rates should benefit corporate profits.
Bonds: positive outlook thanks to income generation, portfolio diversification in terms of ensuring resilience amid current geopolitical uncertainties, and the importance of decarbonization.
2025 will be an attractive environment for new investments in the private market. These include raising financing in the private market, technological disruption, and economic cycles.
The small and medium capitalization sectors, and venture capital, are the most attractive in the field of venture capital. The real estate sector is also expected to enjoy a good harvest year, while the premium of private debt remains attractive in various strategies.
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