Where to invest in currencies and commodities in 2026?
13 JUL, 2026
Markets in mid-2026 are being pulled in two directions at once. On one hand, renewed conflict in the Middle East has kept oil and safe-haven flows on edge. On the other, a slow-burning structural story — de-dollarization, central bank gold buying, and diverging monetary paths in Japan and the US — is reshaping how strategists think about currencies and commodities for the rest of the year. Taken together, the message from a range of institutional voices is consistent: treat these asset classes individually, not as a single macro trade.
Where to invest in currencies and commodities in 2026: the map of convictions
| Segment | Motivation |
|---|---|
| Gold | Realigned with real rates and the dollar after a 30% correction from January's peak; fair-value models point to $4,600/oz by year-end (J. Safra Sarasin, WisdomTree) |
| Silver | Most asymmetric metal play: monetary hedge plus structural industrial demand (solar, EVs, grids), with 70–80% of supply mined as a byproduct, limiting responsiveness to price (J. Safra Sarasin) |
| Oil | Tactical, not strategic exposure — useful for inflation protection while the Iran conflict persists, but historically episodic once tensions abate (Wellington, UBS) |
| US dollar | Structural retreat as central banks diversify reserves and EM issuers cut dollar-debt reliance, though the dollar retains its short-term haven role in acute crises (Plenisfer/Generali) |
| Japanese yen | Undervalued by 15–20% on BEER model estimates; medium-term appreciation case builds as BOJ normalization eventually outweighs fiscal-driven headwinds (Schroders) |
| G10/EM carry (NOK, BRL, NZD) | Short EURNOK and EURBRL, sell NZDUSD downside — positioned to benefit whether oil stays stable or rises (UBS) |
Gold: correction, not collapse
Gold's roughly 30% pullback from its late-January peak above $5,595/oz has dominated headlines, but strategists are largely reading it as a reset rather than a trend reversal. Claudio Wewel, Currency Strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, notes that gold has simply realigned with its historical drivers — real rates and the dollar — after a speculative surge tied to geopolitical shocks including the Greenland standoff and pressure on Fed independence. With positioning data suggesting speculative net-long exposure has already fallen to two-year lows, Wewel's fair-value model points to a recovery toward $4,600/oz by year-end, supported by modest dollar softness and slightly lower real rates.
Nitesh Shah, Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, frames the volatility in structural terms: gold's investor base is expanding — Chinese insurers, Indian pension funds, and digital-asset issuers like Tether are new sources of demand — and the metal may be transitioning to a higher, more stable equilibrium rather than reverting to old ranges. WisdomTree's consensus scenario puts gold near $5,500/oz over the next year, with a bullish case (inflation near 4%, a further 7% DXY decline) pushing prices higher still, and a bearish case — the Fed successfully returning inflation to 2% — pulling gold back to $4,600–4,650/oz.
Silver's asymmetric case
If gold is about stability, silver is about growth. Asad Farid, Portfolio Manager at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, argues silver may offer the more asymmetric opportunity of the two metals, combining a monetary hedge role with surging industrial demand from solar, EVs, and grid infrastructure — a transition he expects the recent oil-price volatility to accelerate. A key structural support: 70–80% of silver output is mined as a byproduct of other metals, meaning supply cannot easily respond to higher prices. Gold, meanwhile, should keep serving as a core store of value, underpinned by central bank accumulation and de-dollarization, with Farid noting that even at lower prices, gold miners should be able to protect margins.
Oil: tactical, not strategic
Alex King and Joshua Riefler of Wellington Management caution against lumping oil and gold into one "geopolitical trade." Oil's price moves have historically been episodic — driven by supply-shock fears and their reversals — while gold has been in a broader bull market since 2022. Their conclusion: oil may be more useful for inflation protection and short-term tactical positioning tied to the duration of the Iran conflict, while gold's longer-term case rests on reserve diversification, ETF inflows, and potential dollar weakness. They flag central bank reserve dynamics — even marginal shifts by major holders like China and Japan — as a swing factor for gold given its comparatively small market size next to US Treasuries.
UBS's latest weekly note echoes the tactical framing on oil: renewed Middle East tensions after President Trump declared "the ceasefire is over" have lifted prices, but UBS doesn't see a spike back to $100/bbl, keeping its base case of oil in the $70s per barrel — a scenario that should keep central banks on hold and favor procyclical, higher-yielding currencies at the expense of the Swiss franc.
The dollar's structural retreat
Mauro Ratto, Co-Founder and CIO of Plenisfer Investments (Generali Investments), makes the case that the dollar's decades-long "exorbitant privilege" is facing its first real structural test. The freezing of Russian dollar reserves after the Ukraine invasion triggered a slow diversification by emerging-market central banks, while China has cut its direct Treasury holdings from over $1.3 trillion to under $700 billion. Emerging markets are also issuing less hard-currency debt, reducing their structural need for dollars. The euro and currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have shown unusual resilience through recent shocks — a sign, Ratto argues, that dollar strength is no longer the only response to uncertainty, even if the dollar retains its central role for now.
The yen: a slow-motion reversal
Tina Fong, Strategist at Schroders, sees Japan's currency story turning, even if it hasn't shown up in spot prices yet. The yen remains near 160 against the dollar despite Bank of Japan rate normalization, held back by fiscal easing under PM Takaichi's record budget. But Fong's BEER model suggests the yen is undervalued by 15–20%, and a reversal in structural capital outflows — as real rates turn positive, likely by late next year — should eventually support the currency.
FX opportunities: UBS's weekly picks
UBS's tactical trade book leans into carry and stable-to-rising-oil scenarios: short EURNOK (targeting 10.75) and short EURBRL (targeting 5.74) to harvest yield from Norway and Brazil, selling downside risk in NZDUSD after the RBNZ's first hike in three years, and selling upside risk in EURSEK and CHFSEK as geopolitical concerns ease. Next week's US CPI print — consensus expects a drop to 3.9% y/y — is flagged as the key catalyst that could take pressure off the Fed and pull the dollar back from recent gains.
The bottom line
Across all seven views, one theme recurs: correlations that used to define currency and commodity markets — dollar strength as the default haven, gold and oil moving in lockstep with risk sentiment — are fraying. Investors are being advised to look asset by asset, and trend by trend, rather than trade the "geopolitical basket" as a whole.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax or legal advice, nor an offer to buy or sell financial instruments. The opinions expressed reflect the assessments of J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, UBS, Plenisfer Investments (Generali Investments), Schroders, Wellington Management and WisdomTree at the date of publication of their respective documents and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing in currencies and commodities involves risks, including exchange rate risk, price volatility, liquidity risk, geopolitical risk and the risk of loss of capital.
