Will gold break another record in 2026?
Updated:
21 MAY, 2026
As we navigate through 2026, gold finds itself at a fascinating crossroads, acting as a primary barometer for global uncertainty. After hitting record highs earlier this year and entering a corrective phase, the precious metal’s trajectory remains tethered to a complex web of monetary policy, central bank activity, and geopolitical developments. To understand where the market may head next, we have gathered insights from several leading experts on whether gold is poised to break further records.
Charaf Louhmadi, Senior Advisor & Author
The conflict in the Middle East has significant impacts on the price of gold:
First, the initial shock: gold soars at the market opening, driven by the search for protection. Then, very quickly, the trend reverses: on March 3rd and 5th, the market is dominated by the rising dollar and bond yields, which push the price of gold down. Then, the month of March, marked by escalating tensions, pushes the price down to nearly $4,389, making it one of the worst months for gold since the early 1980s. It should also be noted that the truce of April 8th lowers oil and the dollar, allowing gold to recover to around $4,740.
In May, the renewed tensions of May 4th weigh on gold as they drive up Brent crude, the dollar, and interest rate expectations. Conversely, hopes for an agreement on May 6–8 support gold because they ease energy pressures and reopen the window for interest rate cuts. Generally speaking, a relaxation of the situation in the Middle East would allow for a rebound in the price of gold, due to lower energy costs, inflation, and interest rates. A renewed escalation of tensions would cause interest rates, inflation, and energy commodity prices to rise, and consequently lower the price of gold.
Yves Maillot, Founder & President, YAM Capital
"As 2026 unfolds, gold remains a key barometer of global uncertainty. After reaching record highs early in the year and entering a corrective phase, its trajectory continues to depend on monetary policy, Central banks purchases and geopolitical developments.
The main fundamental driver remains the steady increase in global debt. The IMF warns about deteriorating public finances in the United States, China and Europe. Without corrective measures, global public debt could rise to 100% of GDP by 2029, versus 94% in 2025, a level comparable to the aftermath of the Second World War. This trend gradually weakens the risk-free perception of sovereign bonds and strengthens gold’s appeal as a diversification asset.
Several additional factors shape gold’s near-term outlook.
- Real interest rates, although slightly higher than last year, remain historically low, preserving the opportunity-cost advantage of holding gold. Markets increasingly expect a cautious approach from the U.S. Federal Reserve, despite rising last CPI figures, supporting a relatively stable environment for bullion.
- Central banks also remain crucial drivers. China, India and Turkey — although Turkey recently mobilized 52 tonnes of gold to support its currency — continue to expand reserves and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. This ongoing de-dollarization trend provides structural support for gold and reinforces its role as a politically neutral store of value.
- At the same time, geopolitical tensions persist, from regional conflicts to the Iranian crisis and Hormuz Strait blockade, sustaining safe-haven demand.
In conclusion, gold’s path in 2026 may not be linear. A temporary pause or moderate pullback remains possible as gold no longer represents a broad consensus trade. However, the combination of low real rates, strong central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and rising global debt continues to support the potential for another record high over the medium term".
While some view the current consolidation as a sign of hesitation, others see it as a necessary moment for investors to recalibrate their expectations.
Ernst Knacke, Head of Research, Shard Capital
Gold’s wobble is not the warning. It Is the opportunity.
Gold has become almost too popular for comfort. The narrative has gone from Central Bank buying to de-dollarisation, and often include risks associated with geopolitics, fiscal deficits and inflation. Inevitably, the gold story attracted the one thing every bull market eventually attracts: complacency.
The sceptics have a point. Gold is not riskless. It can fall when the dollar rises. It can struggle when real yields move higher. It does not always rally when war breaks out. And central banks have not created a “Fed Put” under the gold price. But that is not the real case for owning gold.
Gold is not a day-one war hedge. Rather, we see it is a hedge against what comes next: fiscal expansion, monetary compromise, inflation volatility, sanctions risk, reserve diversification and declining trust in paper claims. That matters in the Fiscal Age. For forty years, investors relied on a simple rule: when risk assets fall, government bonds usually save the day. But if the next shock is inflationary, fiscal or geopolitical, bonds may not offer the same protection. They may even be part of the problem. This was clearly seen in the post-Covid shock and the performance of bond markets in 2022.
Gold is different. It has no credit risk. It is not someone else’s liability. It does not depend on the solvency of a government, the earnings of a company or the credibility of a central bank. Yes, ETF flows can reverse. Yes, passive commodity buying can exaggerate the cycle. Yes, central banks are not price-insensitive. But that does not destroy the structural case. A weaker dollar helps gold, but gold is not just an anti-dollar trade. Higher inflation can help gold, but only if it exposes policy constraints. Gold does not hedge CPI. It hedges the failure of the policy framework around CPI. That is why volatility should be seen as opportunity, not warning. Gold is not a hedge against everything. It is a hedge against the things traditional portfolios are least prepared for".
The debate intensifies when examining how shifting regional conflicts continue to influence market sentiment and price discovery.
Diego Franzin, Portfolio Strategies at Plenisfer Investments, part of Generali Investments
"Between late 2025 and early 2026, gold was widely seen as the ultimate solution for diversification and protection against market risks. After comfortably surpassing the $5,000 per ounce mark, however, the precious metal became somewhat a victim of its own success: significant profit-taking emerged, particularly in U.S. ETFs, while certain central banks—like Turkey's—had to tap into their reserves to support their currencies.
At this stage, price dynamics remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East and the trajectory of 'black gold.' Any stabilization in the geopolitical landscape could ease the economic strain from energy costs and temper expectations of rate hikes—a scenario that would likely curb gold's short-term appeal, given its lack of yield.
Prudence is therefore essential. We are maintaining a cautious, wait-and-see stance, staying at the lower end of our exposure range, while viewing any pullbacks as opportunities for gradual accumulation. Beyond short-term volatility, we believe gold will continue to serve as a structural asset in portfolios, thanks to its role as a store of value and a tool for financial independence amid an increasingly complex geopolitical environment."
Beyond the geopolitical headlines, the fundamental relationship between gold and monetary policy remains a decisive factor for institutional managers.
Charlotte Peuron, Fund manager specialized in precious metals at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management
Gold prices are driven more by monetary policy than by geopolitical risks.
"After several years of strong performance, gold has entered a consolidation phase since the outbreak of the war in Iran and the battle over the Strait of Hormuz. Several factors help explain this trend:
- As is often the case, gold was part of the broader market sell-off at the beginning of the conflict.
- Some central banks took advantage of historically high price levels to sell part of their reserves in order to finance expenditures, highlighting gold’s role as a reserve asset.
- Short-term investors also took profits through the sale of gold ETFs in March.
Today, gold prices are driven more by changes in real interest rates and monetary policy than by geopolitical risks. The oil supply shock, along with its potential economic and inflationary consequences, has effectively eliminated expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is also weighing on precious metal prices. Given the current environment, this volatility is likely to persist until these uncertainties are resolved.
Nevertheless, we remain constructive over the medium term, as the underlying fundamentals continue to be strong. Overall, central banks remain net buyers of gold, with purchases exceeding 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 (Source: Bloomberg, 1T 2026). Gold ETF volumes rebounded and stabilized in April. If inflation becomes entrenched, gold is likely to regain its role as a protective asset following the new rate-hiking cycle. Conversely, if the conflict ends quickly without triggering an acceleration in inflation, the Federal Reserve may seek to stimulate the economy by resuming its rate-cutting cycle. Both scenarios are supportive of gold. And finally, weaker currencies, driven by fiscal deficits and rising public debt, have supported gold prices in recent years. In the current environment, some governments may further expand deficits which would likely be positive for gold."
Finally, looking at the macroeconomic horizon, analysts are weighing various scenarios regarding the resolution of current conflicts and their impact on global growth.
Benjamin Louvet, Director Gestión Materias Primas de Ofi Invest AM
"Gold went under pressure mainly due to macro-economic scenario revision by major investors. Rates went up, while equities were only slightly down, showing that investors bet on a rapid solution to the conflict that will only push inflation higher without hurting substantially growth. As real interest rates pushed higher, that hit precious metals that are assets with no return.
Looking forward, we estimate that there are two most likely scenarios. First, a solution with Ormuz Strait closure quickly negotiated, in that case, it is likely that central banks would probably limit interest rates hikes, as inflation will be seen as temporary and non-monetary. Jerome Powell recently confirmed that the FED will probably adopt a “wait and see” attitude. In that scenario, markets would probably move their focus back on de-dollarization scenario, high indebtedness worries and the loss of trust in the US. As rates should then probably move back, gold and precious metals should regain interest from investors.
The second scenario would be one where the Ormuz Strait remains closed for a longer period or, even worse, the war is restarted with major damages to the Middle East energy infrastructures. In that situation, investors would have no choice but to reconsider their growth assumptions. As energy would start missing, the world could enter a recession. Investors will have to reduce their risk exposure, moving equities and rates down, and pushing reallocation to assets considered as safe haven as gold.
Gold has already slightly rebounded, but whatever happens in the Middle East, we see gold as well positioned to profit from the ongoing situation. Structural issues that pushed precious metals higher are here to stay and independently of the outcome of the war in Iran, they will overcome short term technical factors that weighed on precious metals in the past weeks."
Summary
As of May 2026, gold is navigating a period of consolidation following record highs earlier in the year. While experts acknowledge that short-term volatility persists due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts, there is a strong consensus on the metal’s structural appeal as a long-term asset. The outlook for the remainder of 2026 suggests a non-linear path. While temporary pullbacks may occur due to profit-taking – such as that seen in U.S. ETFs – the fundamentals of global debt, central bank demand, and the need for a neutral store of value continue to support the potential for future record highs over the medium term.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
