Gold outlook for 2026-2027 after the correction: Will the price rise again?
Updated:
29 JUL, 2026
The gold reaches the second half of 2026 after a tumultuous first semester. The metal marked historical highs in January —approaching $5,600 an ounce—, but the conflict in the Middle East and the change in expectations about real interest rates caused a significant correction in the following months.
Despite this, the managers consulted by RankiaPro agree that it is a healthy readjustment within an upward structural trend, and not the end of the bull market that started in 2022. US monetary policy, the role of the dollar and the demand from central banks will be the factors that determine whether gold recovers ground before the end of the year.
Why has the price of gold been corrected in 2026?
Chris Mahoney, gold and silver investment manager at Jupiter AM, explains that the conflict in the Middle East caused a sharp turn in rate expectations: the market went from discounting 50 basis point cuts to anticipating a rise before the end of the year, which necessarily pressured the price of gold downwards. This was compounded by the exit of speculative investors who held very long positions.
Nitesh Shah, Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, adds other catalysts: the appointment of Kevin Warsh at the head of the Federal Reserve dispelled fears of a politicized Fed, and the conflict with Iran generated gold sales as a source of emergency liquidity. Shah emphasizes that "we consider it a healthy readjustment rather than the end of the structural bull market", as the valuation premium accumulated in 2025-2026 has been largely reduced.
What role will the Federal Reserve play in the price of gold?
Mahoney (Jupiter AM) positions Warsh as the key to the second half of the year: if the market concludes that he will adopt a more accommodating stance than it currently discounts, gold could be supported, especially if US employment deteriorates without inflation rebounding. Shah agrees that the market has overreacted by positioning for rate hikes as early as September, a scenario he considers exaggerated.
Both experts also point to a less solid labor market than official forecasts suggest, with downward revisions in non-agricultural payrolls. Shah highlights that the Bloomberg consensus predicts that PCE inflation will fall from 3.9% to 2.2% between the second quarter of 2026 and the same period in 2027, a context that would be more favorable for gold than what prices discount today.
What is the target price for gold in 2027?
WisdomTree provides the most concrete quantitative reference. Applying consensus forecasts on inflation, Treasury bond rates, and the dollar, Shah's model points to a gold price of $4,563 per ounce for the second quarter of 2027, which would represent a recovery of more than $500 compared to the levels at the end of the second quarter of 2026.
Shah clarifies that, in an unusually uncertain macroeconomic environment, he prefers to offer a sensitivity analysis rather than closed bullish and bearish scenarios: if the dollar appreciated to 104 and the 10-year bond rose to 5.24%, the model would yield a much lower price, around $4,209 per ounce.
Why does gold remain a strategic asset in the portfolio?
Alex King, investment strategy analyst at Wellington Management, along with Joshua Riefler, Product Reporting Lead at the same firm, propose a different reading, focused on the role of gold within the portfolio rather than its short-term price. King warns that "the recent drop in gold reflects a cyclical excess rather than a trend break", and reminds that the structural support (central bank reserves, ETF flows and possible dollar weakness) remains in place.
King differentiates the role of gold from that of other commodities such as oil: while crude oil protects against inflation in a tactical way, gold serves a defensive function against market downturns. Given the small size of the gold market compared to US sovereign debt, King points out that even a marginal change in the reserves of large holders like China or Japan could have a disproportionate impact on the price.
Conclusion
The three firms converge on a central idea: the correction of gold in 2026 has cleaned up valuation excesses without breaking the gold's bullish cycle. The difference lies in the horizon of each analysis. Mahoney and Shah focus on the immediate macro catalysts (Fed, inflation, dollar) that could drive the price in the coming months; while King proposes to look beyond the circumstantial noise and treat gold as a structural piece of diversification, not as a tactical bet linked to a single geopolitical or inflationary factor.
Find out what are the best investment funds to invest in gold in 2026 here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results and the price of gold and silver can experience high volatility, including the risk of loss of invested capital. The opinions collected belong to Chris Mahoney (Jupiter AM), Nitesh Shah (WisdomTree), and Alex King and Joshua Riefler (Wellington Management), expressed at the time of their publication and subject to change without prior notice. Any investment decision should be based on the corresponding brochure and have independent professional advice.
