Will gold break another record in 2026?
Updated:
28 JAN, 2026
2026 has started very positively for gold, which has set a new price record (5,500 dollars per ounce), supported by increasing monetary demand and a strategic repositioning of global portfolios.
The question now is inevitable: will the gold rush continue in 2026?
The opinions of four international experts, Swiss External Asset Manager, BNP Paribas AM, Schroders and J. Safra Sarasin, offer a common interpretation: the rise in gold is not a passing phenomenon, but part of a profound transformation of the global financial system.
In orange, the nominal price of gold (USD/oz). In yellow, the real price of gold (USD/oz, 2025 adj.). SOURCE: World Gold Council, IMF, Bloomberg (as of Nov 2025)
What happened to the price of gold in 2025: drivers and dynamics
For Maylix Brianto, CAIA, MBA, CESGA, MCSI, Wealth Manager at Swiss External Asset Manager and Multifamily Office, 2025 marks a historic shift in the perception of gold. The expert recalls how the precious metal has "finally surpassed its 1980 peak adjusted for inflation of $3,674/oz", then pushing "beyond $4,100/oz in November".
A movement not dictated by market emotions, but by three structural pillars: the massive accumulation of central banks ("more than 634 tons added up to the third quarter of 2025"), the weakness of the dollar (-10.7%) and the growth of inflows into ETFs, with "over 250 tons of YTD inflows".
For Brianto, this reveals an epochal transition: "Gold is no longer the benchmark. It's the compass".
Fabien Benchetit, Head of Target Allocation France at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interprets the last two years of rally as the effect of new systemic forces. He recalls that from the low of 2023 "gold has doubled its value", and highlights key decisions such as that of Saudi Arabia, which "invested in silver for the first time", or Indian pension funds, which "supported the possibility of investing in gold-backed ETFs".
US industrial policy has also amplified the momentum, with the hypothesis of including silver among critical minerals.
While recognizing signs of excess ("nine consecutive weeks of gains", "implied volatility at peak") Benchetit is clear: "This is not a speculative bubble but a paradigm shift", so much so that "for the first time since 1996, central bank gold reserves exceed those held in US securities".
Matthew Michael, Commodities and Emerging Markets Debt Analyst at Schroders, highlights three decisive trends that have fueled the rally. First: central bank purchases, especially emerging ones. Michael reports an impressive fact: "67% of central bank gold purchases are not reported". Second: the scarce presence of gold in private portfolios, as "family offices maintain less than 1% of their portfolios in gold/commodities". Third: the extremely small size of the physical market, to the point that "all the gold ever mined could fit into just 3.5 Olympic swimming pools".
In a world where gold is increasingly becoming a monetary asset, these factors create, according to the analyst, a natural mechanism for pushing prices.
On the other hand, Claudio Wewel, FX Strategist at J. Safra Sarasin, notes that 2025 saw "its best performance since 1979, increasing by over 50% since the beginning of the year".
The rise was supported by substantial inflows into ETFs, while central bank purchases slowed down, a sign that investor demand has taken center stage.
For Wewel, the context remains favorable because “geopolitical uncertainty remains high” and “gold remains undervalued”. To this is added an emerging driver: “the increasing demand from stablecoin issuers”.
How will gold behave in 2026?
Maylix Brianto (Swiss External Asset Manager and Multifamily Office) sees a 2026 dominated by the solidity of gold as a strategic asset. According to her, in a redesigned financial system, gold offers “not only diversification, but convexity”.
She also recalls the estimates of JP Morgan, which project the price towards “$5,200-$5,300/oz by the end of 2026”.
Her conclusion is clear: gold is destined to maintain a central role in global portfolios.
For Fabien Benchetit (BNP Paribas Asset Management),“a short-term consolidation was inevitable after two years of rapid appreciation”. But of course this pause has not changed the trend: “the gold correction was just a ‘breathing’ pause "in a long-term upward trend”.
Furthermore, Matthew Michael (Schroders) adds that, in the presence of simultaneous demand from central banks and investors, “prices could rise dramatically”.
Claudio Wewel (J.Safra Sarasin) confirms his position: “we remain convinced that the favorable scenario for gold is intact”.
Benjamin Louvet, Head of Commodities at Ofi Invest Asset Management also agrees: ”Gold could easily break to new records highs, especially as the physical market size, much smaller than traditional asset classes, can limit its ability to absorb large inflows in a short period of time”.
Commenting on the first two months of the year 2026, François Rimeu, Senior Strategist at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management said: “Was the rally in gold and silver over the past two months sustainable? Clearly not. However, we believe that the catalysts that have been present over the past three years remain in place, and that the recent correction is ultimately healthy, as it helps eliminate the most speculative investments“.
However, he also identifies the main downside risks, including “a significant tightening of the Fed's monetary policy” and potentially radical changes in US policy.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
