Where to invest in equities in the second half of 2026
30 JUL, 2026
Where to invest in equities in the second half of 2026 is once again the central question after a first half marked by stock market concentration in a handful of large tech companies and macroeconomic resilience in the face of geopolitical noise. The conflict between Iran and the United States, the rebound in oil prices, and the change at the head of the Federal Reserve have tested the markets, which however have continued to set highs supported by corporate profits and the investment cycle in artificial intelligence.
Looking ahead to the second half, managers agree on maintaining the overweight in equities, but diverge on which regions and sectors will concentrate the best opportunities, especially in the case of Europe.
Where to invest in equities in 2026? The map of convictions
| Region/Theme | Convictions |
|---|---|
| United States | Neutral to overweight position according to the manager; intact technological leadership but demanding valuations (Neuberger, Ofi Invest AM, MIFL) |
| Europe | Divided: overweight due to valuations and super investment cycles (CaixaBank AM, EdR, Ofi Invest AM, MIFL) versus underweight due to weak growth and energy vulnerability (Evli, Fidelity, Neuberger) |
| Japan | Overweight due to corporate governance reforms and buybacks (Neuberger, Ofi Invest AM); more tactical short-term view due to yen volatility (Ofi Invest AM, MIFL) |
| Emerging Markets | Selectively overweight: Korea, Taiwan and China for AI, Brazil and South Africa for commodities (Evli, Fidelity, Neuberger); India downgraded due to high real rates (Neuberger) |
| Sectors | AI infrastructure beyond hyperscalers, industrials, semiconductors and banking; caution in energy and software highly exposed to AI (Neuberger, Ofi Invest AM, MIFL, M&G) |
Why artificial intelligence continues to set the market direction
Despite doubts about its final profitability, AI remains the main driver of the markets for most of the managers consulted. Joe Amato, president and CIO of Neuberger's equity, maintains an overweight position in global and large-cap US equity because the AI spending cycle "continues to expand beyond the hyperscalers to encompass the utilities, energy, industry sectors", among others.
Christophe Herpet, CIO of Ofi Invest AM, places the theme in a new phase: "from a narrative phase to an industrial phase", in which semiconductors, high bandwidth memory, data centers and power grids now concentrate investor interest. The challenge, he points out, is to distinguish between the beneficiaries of AI industrialization and those of its simple narrative.
Not all share the same optimism. Peter Lindahl, from Evli, believes that "the constructive argument seems intact, not exhausted", although he warns that the greatest threat will be the market's ability to absorb three major IPOs linked to AI valued at four trillion dollars. For Terry Ewing, head of equity at Mediolanum International Funds (MIFL), the recent correction of the megacaps responds to technical factors, not a deterioration of the fundamentals.
Europe, the great point of division among managers
Europe concentrates the greatest disagreement. David Manso, director of the Investment area of CaixaBank Asset Management, prefers Europe over the United States, where "valuations are more strained". Michaël Nizard, head of multi-assets and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (EdR), supports this view based on four structural supercycles: artificial intelligence, electrification, infrastructure and defense.
Herpet (Ofi Invest AM) agrees and is "more constructive on European equities than the market consensus", thanks to the moderation of energy prices and the proximity of the ECB to stabilizing inflation. Ewing (MIFL) also expects Europe to recover lost ground, supported by the acceleration of profits after years of stagnation.
At the opposite extreme, Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macroeconomics and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, keeps the region underweight due to its exposure to supply disruptions and stagflation. Amato (Neuberger) downgrades developed countries except the U.S. to underweight due to weak growth and energy vulnerability. Lindahl (Evli) has been underweighting Europe since May due to downward growth revisions.
Emerging markets and Japan: where to find value
Lindahl (Evli) overweights emerging markets due to strong demand for technological hardware and still moderate valuations, with an exposure that "had gained a +27% in euros" until mid-June. Ahmed (Fidelity) is selective: he favors Brazil and South Africa for their link with commodities and Korea for the semiconductor cycle, and warns of the disparity between energy exporters and importers.
Amato (Neuberger) maintains the overweight in emerging markets due to the strength of China, Korea, and Taiwan linked to AI, although he downgrades India and Latin America to "in line with the target" due to high real rates. In Japan, Amato and Herpet (Ofi Invest AM) agree to overweight due to corporate governance reforms and buybacks, although Ofi Invest AM is more tactical in the short term due to yen volatility.
Sector rotation: from megacaps to market breadth
Ewing (MIFL) anticipates an "expansion in the number of sectors and companies that will participate in market gains" and prefers cyclicals over defensives, with capital goods, semiconductors, mining, and banking among his favorites, as long as the recovery of the PMIs is confirmed.
Fabiana Fedeli, CIO of Equities, Multi Asset and Sustainability at M&G Investments, advocates active management in a market where each asset class expresses different future visions, and distinguishes between short-term AI-related opportunities and structural themes such as infrastructure and the low carbon economy in the long term.
The consensus is more cautious in energy, penalized by the fall in oil, and in software and media highly exposed to AI. Stephen Dover and Larry Hatheway, from the Franklin Templeton Institute, add defense, national security and energy infrastructure as long-term themes, in line with population aging and the demand for healthcare innovation.
Conclusion
The common thread that unites the nine managers is the conviction that equities will continue to be the preferred asset, supported by resilient profits and an AI cycle that, according to most, is not exhausted. But the consensus breaks down in the geographical distribution: while CaixaBank AM, EdR, Ofi Invest AM and MIFL bet on a European recovery, Evli, Fidelity and Neuberger prefer to rotate towards Japan and selective emerging markets.
The shared risks (the high stock market concentration, the more restrictive tone of the Fed under Kevin Warsh, geopolitical tension and the pace of capex in AI itself) will require, as Santiago Rubio, director of the Investment Strategy area of CaixaBank AM, summarizes, "to be tactical, humble and very close to the evolution of the markets" during the coming months.
Legal notice: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax or legal advice, or an offer to buy or sell financial instruments. The opinions collected reflect the valuations of CaixaBank Asset Management, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, Evli, Fidelity International, Franklin Templeton, M&G Investments, Mediolanum International Funds (MIFL), Neuberger Berman and Ofi Invest AM at the date of publication of their respective documents, and are subject to changes without prior notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing in equities involves risks, including market risk, volatility, sector and geographical concentration, and exchange rate risk for investments in foreign currency.
