| Manager | Investment prospects for the second half of 2025 |
| Amundi | Uncertainty: geopolitical risk, high levels of debt, and limited fiscal margin increase vulnerabilities.
The major economies show resilience but also divergent trajectories: the USA is expected to slow down, Europe will register moderate growth, and India will stand out.
Moderately "risk-on" allocation: the rotation of equity towards Europe and emerging markets will continue. A further steepening of the yield curves is also likely.
Resilience and diversification: moderately pro-risk position, with strengthened hedges against inflation and currency risks. Focus on long-term themes, and selective exposure to real and alternative assets.
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| Candriam | Neutral and well-diversified position in equity: avoid regional bias and favor diversification by sector and style.
American Equity: selective, with a preference for technological values, driven by the structural growth linked to AI.
European variable yield: is benefiting from more active budget responses and more attractive valuations. The valuations of banks and public services are in line with their historical average. The rise of the euro could also weigh on profits.
Emerging variable yield: the evolution of the American dollar is a key element. Positive with Chinese technology: the current weakness is an opportunity to increase investments.
Long position on the duration in the euro zone and neutral on US government securities. In a diversified portfolio, the duration continues to offer effective protection.
Credit: preference for investment grade securities with a favorable bias towards European credit. More cautious regarding high yield.
Gold and alternative assets support portfolios.
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| Columbia Threadneedle Investments | Corporate debt, artificial intelligence and American financial sector are the sectors with the greatest investment opportunities.
Europe is one of the most attractive regions thanks to the German fiscal stimulus, and the monetary flexibility of the ECB and the Bank of England.
The evolution of the labor market will be decisive for the Fed's rate policy and, therefore, for the yield of American fixed income.
In an environment characterized by ambiguity and dizzying changes, rigorous analysis and asset selection are the key to obtaining a return adequate to the risk.
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| Deutsche Bank | It predicts that Spain will close 2025 with a GDP increase of 2.2%, much above the surrounding economies and double the average of the euro zone.
The euro zone inflation will remain close to the ECB's 2% target this year and next, allowing a further rate cut over the next four quarters.
Equity: prospects remain positive, but volatile. Important diversification between regions and sectors.
Fixed income: the high yields of government bonds stand out both in the United States and in Europe, amid tax pressure and the increase in term premiums.
Gold: the current uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on the global economy increases its appeal as a "safe haven".
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| DPAM | Equity: high volatility. Important to maintain long-term investment and take advantage of opportunities that emerge after crises.
Modest yield in the United States, while Europe shows some potential thanks to fiscal stimuli and more attractive valuations.
Emerging markets: could benefit if the dollar's weakness continues.
Listed real estate sector: offers opportunities for its recovery of fundamentals and discounts compared to the net value of assets.
Fixed income: differences between the United States and Europe generate divergent opportunities for investors. The view on credit is neutral due to lack of clear catalysts.
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| Dunas Capital AM | Very low risk strategy in an environment characterized by high political uncertainty, increase in public deficit and global economic slowdown.
Fixed income: avoid exposure to the longest stretches of the curve and maintain a conservative positioning in "senior" financial bonds with maturities not exceeding four years.
Variable income: prioritize companies with visible cash flow generation in sectors such as health, utilities, energy, telecommunications and financial services.
Timely opportunities linked to the German fiscal stimulus plan: investment in both the MDAX and European cyclical companies in the automotive and chemical sectors, as well as in the defense field through technological consultants.
The protection against market volatility remains a priority: maintain strong global portfolio coverage through Eurostoxx 50 option structures.
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| DWS | Stock prices are driven by long-term earnings. We predict that global earnings will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026.
The S&P 500 is disproportionately benefiting from the enthusiasm for AI and other digital growth.
Europe: the prospect of a more expansive fiscal policy is stimulating growth and investment prospects.
If inflation makes a comeback, stocks, gold and some segments of the real estate and infrastructure sectors could offer relatively better risk management compared to cash or bonds.
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| Edmond de Rothschild AM | Important political issues, but without significant repercussions on market behavior, apart from occasional volatility.
Points to monitor for investors in the second half: geopolitical risk, trade tensions and American public deficit.
Asset allocation: slight underweight of variable yield -especially the American one- and of the dollar.
Fixed income: avoid long-term bonds, as the risk of recession remains moderate.
Positive on Europe: the application of the Draghi plan could allow the continent to catch up, stimulating competitiveness and supporting industry and technology.
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| Eurizon AM | The war between the United States and China is more technological than commercial and could be positive for the world, especially for Asia.
Investment strategy: positive on European sovereign debt and on the global stock market.
Positive outlook on debt of peripheral countries of the Eurozone: corporate credit spreads have stabilized, with an improvement in sentiment towards high yield bonds both in the United States and in Europe.
Global stock market: maintains a positive trend, driven by Europe and emerging markets in the first half of the year, and with the United States now recovering.
In the short term, the American stock market could catch up the delay accumulated in the first half of the year, but the European stock market also remains attractive.
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| Fidelity | Diversified portfolios worldwide: asset allocation by regions will be more important now that American assets are experiencing greater volatility.
Emerging bonds in strong currency and national currency: they will benefit from the weakness of the dollar, many of them are very cheap. Some, like Brazilian and Mexican bonds, offer attractive returns.
Emerging stock market: China's upward movement finds more fundamental support than on previous occasions. Valuations are relatively low. There are interesting areas in China, India and Latin America.
The euro and the yen: both currencies should maintain relative stability and offer some of the defensive qualities lost with the instability of the dollar.
Gold: it will likely play its traditional role as a store of value in the face of dollar devaluation.
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| Goldman Sachs AM | Equity: potential opportunities in various geographies and sectors, including Europe and small caps. Globally, companies with key differentiating factors and pricing power may be particularly attractive in a higher rate environment.
The broader technology universe offers numerous opportunities, especially with the rise of agentive AI.
Fixed income: given the tightening of spreads in an uncertain environment, investors may need to explore opportunities across the fixed income spectrum, including securitized sectors.
Private markets: hedge funds and hedging strategies against extreme risks can offer alternative paths to resilience.
Megatrends and disruption: AI, the transition to clean energy and the return of industrial production to countries of origin (reshoring) continue to drive a strong increase in energy and electricity demand. A greater volume of private credit oriented towards climate transition will be needed.
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| M&G | Liquidity remains a competitive asset: The official interest rate in the United States remains the dominant factor for global investors, both in its current level and in its future path.
Fixed income: real yields in fixed income are currently attractive compared to most of the last 20 years, and reasonable in the broader context of the last 30.
The spreads of corporate securities in developed markets have widened since the beginning of the year.
Greater compensation for risk in emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
Variable income: high valuations in some stock exchanges. From a long-term perspective, the risk premium remains low in the stock markets of the United States, India, Taiwan and Australia.
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| Lombard Odier | Downward revision of global growth forecasts, reflecting the impact of United States trade policy. Even though the American economy is slowing down, it should avoid a recession.
Central bank interest rates will remain low, especially in the euro zone and Switzerland. The Fed is expected to start cutting in the second half of 2025.
Fixed income: they prefer government bonds such as the Japanese government debt (covered) and the US Treasury bonds protected from inflation. Investment grade corporate bonds offer opportunities to increase diversification.
Variable income: global stocks should perform well and favor cyclical sectors, as well as infrastructure and positive themes for nature.
Alternative investments: the real estate sector benefits from falling rates and the strategies of market-neutral hedge funds can offer stability.
Gold: precious strategic diversifier while its prices consolidate.
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| Singular Bank | Change in the world order, defined by the so-called "5D": deglobalization, decarbonization, digitization, demography and reconfiguration of the world order.
Slowdown in the growth rate to 1.5% in the USA by 2025, in a context marked by the turn of the economic policy of the world's leading power.
Spanish economy: greater resilience in the face of the evolution of domestic consumption, employment and demographic growth, but faces structural challenges.
Prudent investment strategy but with strong geographical and sectoral biases, focusing on predictable returns and structural trends such as the energy transition, digitization and demographic change.
It distinguishes the medium-term public debt, investment-grade corporate debt and sectors such as health and infrastructure in stocks, favoring regions like Europe and Asia-Pacific.
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| T. Rowe Price | Asset allocation: it will be characterized by protection against inflation and diversification of equity portfolios.
European values offer attractive valuations: they have outperformed American ones this year and seem to be well positioned to continue doing so.
Emerging markets: India and Argentina stand out. It is also predicted that the shares of Indonesia and Saudi Arabia will perform well. On the contrary, Vietnam is facing a slightly more complicated period.
Fixed income: credit risk securities could yield more than public debt. Tariffs and German tax reform have changed the securities landscape. High yield securities and certain emerging markets offer significant diversification.
Underweight in both long-term Treasury securities and US stocks.
The general improvement in companies' credit quality will stimulate private fixed income.
Corporate governance reforms continue to support Japanese equity.
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| Wellington Management | The risk of recession is low and fundamental factors continue to support a slight overweight of global equity compared to fixed income.
Neutral position on European equity and emerging markets, moderately overweight in Japan and slightly underweight in the United States.
Neutral in terms of duration, but with a slight overweight in credit. Despite the spreads having narrowed, high yield continues to generate an acceptable return from carry, with reduced refinancing risk.
Underweight in oil: predicts a surplus in the market this year due to the slowdown in production cuts by OPEC.
Overweighted in gold: supported by the demand of central banks and its potential as a hedge against a stagflation environment.
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