Why defense should not follow geopolitics’ new tempo
9 FEB, 2026
Kristofer Steneberg, Independent Journalist
Long-term deterrence and abrupt political shifts don't add up
What can be described as an ongoing geopolitical storm, with pronouncements from leaders and daily course changes, has little to do with the reality of military structures. Nato functions well at the military level and cooperation between commanders is stable. Now Europe needs to take control of its own agenda, says former commander of US Army forces in Europe, Ben Hodges who is now a Principal Strategic Advisor – Geopolitics and Security to the fund’s Advisory Board.
When the Trump administration's new national security strategy was presented in December 2025, it became clear that the United States has neither the will nor the capacity to protect Europe in the same way as before. The rhetoric about Greenland and tariff threats against allies has stirred things up considerably in the EU and shaken NATO to its core.
Ben Hodges has extensive experience as a US Army officer and strategist, with nearly four decades of service where he led US Army forces in Europe and held several key command roles in Iraq, Afghanistan, and NATO. Today he serves as security policy advisor and strategy expert at Sweden's Finserve Global Security Fund.
”NATO has never been stronger militarily than today, but politically we are more divided than ever. That is the great paradox,” says Ben Hodges.
He describes a shift that cannot be reversed. NATO and the transatlantic relationship remain crucial, but America's role in European security has changed.
”The American military is superior in almost every area. But our politics is unreliable, and that undermines everything. Our allies don't know if they can trust us anymore,” says Ben Hodges.
But the abrupt shifts in international power politics also create confusion for Russia:
”President Trump's unpredictability can actually be an asset sometimes. The Kremlin doesn't like uncertainty. The problem is that it creates uncertainty for our allies as well,” says Ben Hodges.
”I am convinced that if Russia attacked a NATO member tomorrow, the US and NATO would defend them. But the question is how quickly that would happen and how united our response would be. That's where the uncertainty lies,” he says.
Russia continues to test the boundaries against Europe, including through sabotage against critical infrastructure and gray-zone operations. According to Hodges, this represents a deliberate pattern: to pressure NATO cohesion without crossing the formal threshold of war.
”Putin does what every good chess player does. He reads his opponent and tries to understand what weaknesses and limitations they have. Then he exploits those limitations. The Kremlin only respects strength. They don't respect weakness, and hesitation is always perceived as weakness. That's why they continue to test the boundaries,” says Ben Hodges.
Russia, for example, produced 250,000 artillery shells per month in 2024, more than double what NATO produced at the same time.
He wants to see European leaders talk about defense investments with the same enthusiasm as they talk about climate or digitalization. According to Ben Hodges, it is equally important for our future.
”We must stop thinking of defense as a cost. It is an investment in stability, in economic security, and in our future. Every billion we spend now saves us ten billion later,” says Ben Hodges.
During the Cold War, NATO members spent an average of 4 to 6 percent of GDP on defense. Between 2000 and 2022, the average fell to 1.5 to 2.0 percent, resulting in depleted stockpiles, aging platforms, and limited industrial capacity. But today the picture is different. European defense procurement is expected to grow at an average of 11 percent per year through 2035. Total spending over the period is estimated to exceed $4 trillion. The 2025 NATO summit in The Hague decided on binding commitments to reach 5 percent of GDP in defense spending by 2035. As an interim target, at least 3.5 percent of GDP should go to core defense expenditures. The question is whether increased investment is all that's needed. Ben Hodges says Europe lacks confidence and a coherent strategy:
”So far it has been too reactive. Europe needs to take command over its own agenda. And as long as Europe doesn't present a coherent grand strategy, it will be a victim of the great powers. It's not a lack of military capacity, rather it's about a lack of political courage to use the capacity we have,” Ben Hodges says.
”For this relationship to work, Europe cannot be subservient. Add up your economies and act like it”.
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