Gold, oil… and global tensions: why precious metals could shine again in 2026?
1 JUL, 2026
Marketing Communication
After an exceptional 2025 for precious metals, investors have faced a much more volatile environment in the first half of 2026, shaped by shifting monetary policy expectations and heightened geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, precious metals continue to attract attention as both diversification tools and potential hedges against economic uncertainty.
To discuss the recent market dynamics, the positioning of the Ofi Invest Precious Metals fund, and the outlook for gold and other precious metals, we spoke with Benjamin Louvet, Head of Commodities Funds Management at Ofi Invest Asset Management.
To start with, can you explain what the Ofi Invest Precious Metals fund is and what makes it an attractive solution?
Ofi Invest Precious Metals is a fund that gives investors indirect exposure to a basket of gold, silver, platinum and palladium (not mining stocks). The fund is UCITS-compliant and eligible for unit-linked products in almost all European countries. It offers synthetic, leveraged exposure via futures* and swaps*, replicating an index designed by Ofi Invest Asset Management. Its uniqueness lies in its transparent, equity-free approach, currency hedging and daily liquidity, providing efficient and diversified access to precious metals to investors with all the advantages of the UCITS format. The fund involves specific risks, including derivatives risk, counterparty risk, leverage risk and high volatility related to commodities markets, which may lead to significant losses.
2025 was an exceptional year, but 2026 started with more volatility*. What happened?
After a tremendous year in 2025 during which precious metals rose sharply pushing the fund’s Net Asset Value up more than 90%¹ on the year, the fund has experienced heightened volatility since the start of 2026.
Driven by market reallocation after the breathtaking performance of last year, many investors reallocated part of their assets to precious metals, with silver rising nearly 60% in January and gold by more than 20%. However, on the last day of the month, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chairman pushed the entire asset class sharply lower, with silver losing more than 30% in one day and gold more than 10%¹.
How do interest rates and central bank expectations impact precious metals?
As precious metals are non-yielding assets, they are more attractive when interest rates are low. As Warsh is seen as hawkish by investors, they considered that he should be less supportive of lower interest rates. The move surprised the market as Warsh was picked by Trump who, for months, criticized Jerome Powell for not moving rates down fast enough.
What role did geopolitics and macro factors play in the first half of 2026?
In the following months, precious metals prices were mainly driven by the evolution of the Middle East conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel. As markets mostly priced in an inflationary impact, interest rates are up, which is negative for gold and other real assets. At the same time, as always when geopolitical issues occurred, investors repatriated their assets to the US, pushing up the US dollar. As commodities are traded in US dollars, that pushed precious metals prices down. Precious metals thus ended the first half of the year almost flat.
What is your outlook for precious metals going forward?
The second half of the year should be far more constructive. Should the conflict come to an end, markets should get back to normal. Before the war started, gold and precious metals were well positioned, supported by structural factors. The end of full globalization reduces the safe-haven status of the US dollar. That is one of the reasons why central banks have been major buyers of gold in recent years and continue to do so this year.
There is a growing level of concern regarding the sustainability of debt. With large economies highly indebted, the only soft way out of this situation is to keep real interest rates lower for longer. That’s a real driver for higher gold and precious metals prices. The other option would be a debt restructuring, which would be highly painful and would push the price of gold sharply higher.
The other option is a long-lasting war in the Middle East with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for months. In such a scenario, markets will have no choice but to price in slower growth with sticky inflation. This scenario, known as stagflation, would be highly positive for gold and precious metals. Again, in this situation, interest rates will have to stay low to support growth. But even more essential will be to keep the debt burden bearable.
Finally, in such a situation, gold will regain its safe-haven status as real assets will be the only place to hide…
Whatever the scenario in the Middle East, the drivers for gold and precious metals to rise are structural and more linked to the correction of a long-term issue: potential growth is limited in a highly indebted context in the biggest economies. In our view, gold and precious metals have thus many reasons to move up in the second half of this year and as long as the debt issue is not resolved.
1 Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
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Important Information:
This advertising communication is drawn up by Ofi Invest Asset Management, a portfolio management company (APE 6630Z) under French law approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under number GP92012 – company intra-community VAT number FR51384940342, a limited company with a Board of directors with a capital of 71,957,490 euros, whose registered office is located at 127-129, quai du Président Roosevelt 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux, registered with the Nanterre Trade and Companies Register under number 384 940 342.
This advertising communication does not give any assurance of the suitability of the products or services presented to the investor's situation or objectives and does not constitute a recommendation, advice or offer to buy the financial products mentioned. Ofi Invest Asset Management declines all responsibility for any damage or loss resulting from the use, in whole or in part, of the elements contained therein. Ofi Invest Asset Management considers that the information and figures contained in this advertising communication were valid and accurate on the day that they were drawn up. No guarantee can be made as to the exactitude of information gained from public sources.
Analyses and advises on allocation are based on hypotheses and internal forecasts of Ofi Invest Asset Management at the time the advertising communication was drawn up, which could be totally or partially not achieved. They should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment and could be modified at any time.
The value of an investment in financial markets can go down as well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. Given the economic and market risks, there can be no assurance that the products and services quoted in this advertising communication will achieve their investment objectives. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
The Key Information Document (KID) - in English - and the prospectus - in English - are offered to subscribers prior to subscription and given at subscription; these elements, as well as the latest available financial statements, are available to the public on request, from Ofi Invest Asset Management.The fund(s) presented in this advertisement may not be registered in all jurisdictions. Funds may be restricted in respect of certain persons or in certain countries under the national regulations applicable to such persons or in those countries. Prior to investing, investors must verify any legal constraints or restrictions there may be in connection with the subscription, purchase, possession or sale of the shares of the fund(s).
Ofi Invest Asset Management may decide to terminate the provisions relating to the marketing of the fund, in accordance with Directive 2009/65/EC, and Regulation 2019/1156 of the European Parliament and of the Council. Information on investor law and collective redress mechanisms at national and EU level in the event of a dispute can be found here : https://www.ofi-invest-am.com/en/informations-reglementaires.
FA26/0850/09062027
Glossary:
Future: A future is a standardized contract to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific future date.
Swap: A swap is a bilateral derivative contract in which two counterparties agree to exchange future cash flows or financial obligations according to predefined terms and risk exposures.
Volatility: corresponds to the calculation of the amplitudes of variations in the price of a financial asset. The higher the volatility, the riskier the investment will be considered.
