Ceasefire between USA and Iran: relief for the markets, but the risks remain high
9 APR, 2026
By Joanna Piwko from RankiaPro Europe
The temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran has triggered a positive reaction in global markets, helping to cool tensions that in recent weeks had driven up the price of oil and increased financial volatility.
Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, notes that “the ceasefire between the United States and Iran comes at a time when energy markets were already showing the first signs of stabilization”. At the same time, Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Investment Management, observes how markets have reacted enthusiastically to the announcement, while warning about the still temporary nature of the agreement. In the same direction is also Anthony Kettle, Senior Portfolio Manager at RBC BlueBay, who considers that “the two-week conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran is a positive signal, a kind of 'emergency switch'”.
However, according to experts, this is a fragile truce, which reduces risks in the short term but does not eliminate the structural uncertainties related to the geopolitical context and global energy flows.
Reaction of financial markets and at a macroeconomic level
From the point of view of financial markets, Hentov (State Street IM) describes an immediate and significant reaction, emphasizing that “markets have reacted with enthusiasm to a 'risk-on' rally”, accompanied by the fact that “bond yields have also fallen sharply”.
At the same time, Rücker (Julius Baer) interprets this dynamic as a signal of the system's adaptability, noting that “physical energy markets adapt more quickly than feared”. However, Kettle (RBC BlueBay) advises not to overestimate the improvement, specifying that “in the short term we see tactical relief”, rather than a structural change.
The consequences also extend to the global macroeconomic framework. Kettle (RBC BlueBay) highlights that "oil dynamics have been the main driver of emerging performance", showing how much the price of energy influences growth and markets. At the same time, Rücker (Jukius Baer) emphasizes elements of stability, noting that "storage levels at major hubs have not signaled acute shortages", thus avoiding a systemic shock. However, Hentov (State Street IM) maintains a cautious approach, reminding that "the elements for a significant global macro shock remain present".
Impact on energy markets (especially oil) and energy flows
On the energy front, Rücker (Julius Baer) highlights that, even in times of greatest tension, "the picture has never been that of a total interruption of supplies, but rather of a partial and continuously evolving opening", thus reinforcing the idea of an intense but temporary shock.
In parallel, Hentov (State Street IM) emphasizes that the market reaction has been consistent with expectations, noting that "in addition to oil, bond yields also fell sharply after the news, in line with our expectations", but implying that stabilization is not yet definitive.
Finally, Kettle (RBC BlueBay) draws attention to the intensity of the previous phase, reminding that "oil rose above 117 dollars a barrel, triggering inflationary fears", while now the context appears more favorable, as "lower oil prices alleviate inflationary pressures in the most vulnerable Asian economies".
As for energy flows, Rücker (Julius Baer) highlights the resilience of the system, pointing out that "maritime transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to recover", even though "remaining below pre-conflict levels".
However, this reading is balanced by Hentov (State Street IM), who urges caution, stating that "a temporary increase in shipping does not equate to a predictable normalization of energy flows in the coming months". In line with this caution, Kettle (RBC BlueBay) adds that investor attention remains high, as "markets will continue to closely monitor the volumes passing through the Strait", aware of their impact on sentiment.
Persistence of geopolitical risk and uncertainty about duration and future developments
Despite the improvement in the context, geopolitical risk remains central. Hentov (State Street IM) makes it clear, stating that "we are not yet out of danger (nor are we out of the Strait)", highlighting the fragility of the situation.
In the same way, Rücker (Julius Baer) highlights how the situation remains intermediate and unresolved, observing that "the situation is not binary: it is neither completely upset nor completely normalized". To reinforce this view, Kettle (RBC BlueBay) also points out further structural criticalities, reminding that "some large energy-exporting economies have suffered significant damage to infrastructure".
Looking ahead, uncertainty remains high. Kettle urges caution in investment strategies, stating that "we remain cautious in making structural bets until there is more clarity on the duration of this agreement". At the same time, Hentov emphasizes that the sustainability of the truce will depend on further diplomatic developments, highlighting that "a significant softening of the Iranian position will be necessary to avoid a resumption of fighting". In conclusion, Rücker describes a context still evolving, in which "energy markets will likely continue to operate in a partially constrained but functioning state".
