Moneyfarm’s Richard Flax flags UK inflation rise to 3.1% as core prices hold steady

UK inflation picked up in August, but the details point to contained underlying price pressures. Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer at Moneyfarm, said the headline consumer price index rose from 2.9% in July to 3.1%, while core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Flax said today that the rise was driven largely by higher transport and fuel costs rather than a broader pickup in prices.

Core inflation holds steady despite headline rise

The headline figures show that price pressures in the UK remain elevated, but Flax pointed to a more reassuring detail underneath the surface number.

The rise, however, appears to have been driven largely by higher transport and fuel costs, while core inflation remained stable at 2.6%, an element suggesting that underlying price pressures are not, for the moment, showing signs of acceleration.

Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer, Moneyfarm

What the data means for the Bank of England

For the Bank of England, the distinction between the headline and core readings will be central to how policymakers interpret the data. It comes three months after another reading showed UK inflation surprising to the downside, a shift that underlines how quickly the picture has moved since then.

Although inflation remains above target, the stability of the core figure offers some reassurance that domestic price pressures are under control. Policymakers are likely to focus more on assessing whether the recent increase is temporary or persistent, rather than on any substantial shift in the near-term monetary policy outlook.

Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer, Moneyfarm