The memory crisis: winners and losers
12 MAR, 2026
By Neuberger Berman
By Gianmarco Migliavacca, Senior Analyst, Neuberger Berman
Memory chip prices are expected to rise significantly through 2026, driven by demand from artificial intelligence data centers, which is diverting supply away from traditional memory used in personal computers, smartphones, servers, vehicles, and consumer electronics. This is creating margin compression, product delays, and inventory risks for investment-grade issuers.
Since the fourth quarter of 2025, we have witnessed rising spot prices for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, along with a sequential reduction in DRAM suppliers’ inventories. This indicates a growing risk of shortages in the availability of this type of memory semiconductor, which would represent a disruptive trend for several end-user sectors.
• Higher prices, lower inventories:
The main reason for these DRAM trends is the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) development and infrastructure construction, primarily driven by hyperscalers operating vast scalable cloud data centers. This has already begun to trigger a supply crisis in Asian DRAM markets. As AI workloads grow exponentially, memory has become one of the most constrained components in the semiconductor ecosystem. Shortages and rising prices are expected to persist this year and possibly until 2027, becoming a credit risk that will need to be closely monitored as we approach the 2026 earnings season. This credit risk would have two key dimensions: higher costs for sectors that most rely on memory chips, and supply disruptions for sectors or companies that may not be able to obtain enough chips to meet their production needs.
• The challenge:
Although most memory chips are purchased through annual or longer-term contracts under conditions that remain much more favorable than buying on the spot market, this contractual protection will gradually weaken as contracts approach expiration or renewal. This suggests that cost pressure and supply constraints could become one of the hottest issues in certain sectors by late this year and into 2027.
• Winners:
The potential winners will be the leading DRAM suppliers, such as semiconductor manufacturers Samsung and Micron Technologies, which will be able to charge higher prices amid rising demand and an impending supply shortage. Overall, these dynamics point to the emergence of a multi-year bull cycle in the memory sector, centered in Asia, where major manufacturers—especially in South Korea, Taiwan, and parts of China—are well positioned to benefit from higher prices, stricter supply discipline, and accelerating demand for AI-driven components.
• Losers:
Potential losers include consumer electronics manufacturers, which would face higher memory chip costs for smartphones and personal computers; hyperscalers, which would see the cost of building data centers increase; and automakers, which would be affected by both limited availability and rising costs of chips needed for vehicle electronic architectures and infotainment systems. If only part of these cost increases is passed on to end customers, profitability would be negatively affected.
• The automotive sector:
Automakers will face cost pressures due to the sharp increase in DRAM prices. According to a February 2026 Barclays analysis, constraints and costs associated with memory chips would disproportionately affect the production of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which require significantly more DRAM than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles because BEVs rely more heavily on high-power computing systems. This difference could delay automakers’ goal of price parity between BEV and ICE models (currently unfavorable for BEVs), slowing BEV adoption and reducing profitability for automakers—especially in Europe. European manufacturers will have to push sales of more expensive, lower-margin BEVs to meet strict regulatory requirements, unlike in the U.S. market, where the current administration strongly supports ICE vehicles (and is less supportive of BEVs). Regionally, Korean automakers such as Hyundai and Kia, along with Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi, may be more exposed to a potential DRAM shortage than their Japanese counterparts—such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan—due to their stronger focus on electric vehicle platforms and advanced in-car technology.
