USA: Inflation steady at 2.4% as markets watch energy and geopolitics
11 MAR, 2026
By Moneyfarm
By Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer, Moneyfarm
Inflation in the United States remained broadly stable in February: the consumer price index stood at 2.4% year-on-year, while core inflation—which excludes the more volatile components such as food and energy—came in at 2.5%. However, it is important to remember that these figures were recorded before the escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and March inflation data could show upward pressure, following the sharp increase in energy prices in recent days and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
It is therefore likely that markets will not place too much weight on the February data, instead keeping their focus on energy price trends and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which will play a crucial role in shaping the next moves in monetary policy. For now, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, but the recent jump in energy prices has reduced expectations for rate cuts this year: from previous forecasts of two or three cuts of 25 basis points each, markets are now expecting only one or two.
